What does economic and political instability leads to in Pakistan

 What does economic and political instability leads to in Pakistan

With economic and political stability at the bottom of the barrel and floods ravaging southern Pakistan, one can always begin to speculate on what will happen in Pakistan. It probably is getting ready for a the military take over once again. Currently, foreign policy is run by the army. Pretty soon the economy will be in the hands of the military too. All they need is an excuse or an instability that develops with the failure of the civil government or the outcome of the next election, and so on.

All the foreign policy changes which came to light with Pakistani Army providing co-ordinates for Zawahiri killing, US right away approving $450 million F-16 upgrade to Old and out of date Pakistani airforce, US voting to allow $6 billion IMF loan, US Ambassador’s visit to occupied Kashmir, two US coast guard vessel visiting Pakistani ports after a lapse of 6 years, Pakistani Army Chief given red carpet welcome at Pentagon and most important of all….. The removal of Imran Khan from the position of Prime Minister was no isolated incident. Diplomacy had been going on behind the scenes for months with the army and not with the civil government. All these changes that happened so quickly meant that everything had been narrowed down to the last detail and we only got to know it now.

Precedents exist…. Ayub Khan took over in the fifties after political instability, Yahya Khan and Zia Ul Haq took over after the major military debacle and political instability and then last of all Musharraf wished war with India and not shaking hands. That is why every military takeover is the result of civil failures.

Currently the economy is in the dumps, and has been in the dumps for the greater part of the last decade. It cannot import raw materials like cotton because there is no money, which is why textile factories and many others have closed. There is no chance for improvements even if all the tranches of IMF loans arrive. Reasons…... the Army will grab a bulk of it. If the civilian government objects, then the Army takeover is a near certainty.

When all this happens, the American Administration will smile from the sidelines and so will the Chinese who are hard pressed to get their $60 billion road completed or get any of their money back. Sick and tired Pakistani public will also smile, that the army obtains all internal political, economic and foreign policy powers.

Ayub, Zia and Musharraf could not change the economic fate of a typical Pakistani. They all came and went and nothing changed. That may happen all over again. Whether the Army will sound the war drums with India again, it is not certain. India has to ignore and continue with the economic construction.

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