Chinese invasion of Taiwan on Hold

 Chinese invasion of Taiwan on hold

Chinese in their enthusiasm to display power in the Pacific, had planned to cross the 80 miles of the China Sea and invade Taiwan this year. They had been building up power, right in the vicinity for about ten years. Several new islands had been built to serve as stationary aircraft carriers. In a dumbest demonstration of their missile power they staged a simulated attack on an American carrier with their DF-21missile to sink it. They also organized multi-sea landings exercise in the public view as a practice. Heavy missiles were prepared to attack Guam (the American base in the Pacific) to stop bombers and fighters from using it. In short, two-thirds of the Chinese power has been concentrated between north and south China Sea.

On the other hand highly modernized Taiwan forces are ready to take on the attacking Chinese marines. American navy will be waiting to isolate the invading Chinese force by blocking their sea supply routes, just the way the British Navy isolated Argentinian Troops on the Falkland Islands1981. Therefore, the Chinese invasion force would be caught in a noose with Taiwanese troops putting up a big fight and the Americans are blocking supplies. It's a classic failure trap. ……. Chinese leadership has war gamed this scenario, hence would never give the go ahead except intimidation. 

Let's understand how powerful China is. …….. They have a million men (out of a total of 1.5 million) on the coast of the North and South China Sea. These numbers sound daunting, but they are poorly equipped (unlike the Taiwanese). Their equipment has not been tested in combat in the last 40 years, so their combat capability is unknown. They have the biggest navy in the world, all equipped with newly built warships that have been copied or reverse engineered with dubious capability. Their planes and naval ships are led by inexperienced airmen and sailors. Moreover, it is well known that Chinese are afraid of the deep, hence many of their naval vessels hug the coast, never enter the deep sea.

Their Airforce is a jumble of home made copies of fighter planes and bombers bought from Russia. Although their number is very large with 1800 but only 400 are modern and able to face the enemy. Their stealth aircrafts, although much talked about, are still work in progress. In a shooting war the latter would be swept aside in the first three days of the war.

In a situation like this, a stunning display of power was staged by US with 50 war planes, with the F-22 Raptors joined by F-35 & F-15 fighters in July. It scared the Chinese. The Chinese got the message.

Politically, the QUAD meeting of the four nations in May this year in which the US President reaffirmed determination to defend Taiwan went a long way to knock some sense into the Chinese leadership. Political will and military display have sent Chinese thinking about their plans.

Will the Taiwan invasion still happen?……. I doubt it, but the intimidation will continue, which the Taiwanese are very used to.