Wooing about India’s dependence on Russia for arms

 Wooing about India's dependence on Russia for arms.


How has the Russian-Ukrainian war affected India? There is a very visible impact that expected GDP growth could decline by one percentage point. Also the inflation can touch one or two points higher. These are negative repercussions, but there are also good things to highlight. There is a chance that some industry from China may relocate to India. I bet that America and the UK together with France, who monopolize arms technology worldwide may loosen their controls to let India have better access to defense technology and remove India away from Russia’s defense purchases. In addition, that belligerent China may unleash its fangs in Indo-Pacific, hence US believes that India is a good counter.

All this fits into the Indian make at home policy (Atamnirbhar). Recently, a VIP parade has taken place in Delhi. The British Prime Minister was in Delhi; two Secretary (highest officials) from US government have been in discussion with India, PM, Modi is visiting France, etc. President Biden is coming to Japan and South Korea for a QUAD meeting. He will hold a private discussion with Prime Minister Modi. Furthermore, we must remember that the United States have left India considerable leeway on the CAATSA file. All this happening to take India out of Russia’s sphere of influence. 

Some of the statements made by the Western leader include:

Boris Johnson of the UK has offered support to new fighter jets designed and built in India, offering the best of British know-how. The American are not far behind, the US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has offered advanced American weaponry to India, etc. Like this, a major effort is underway to offer India better technology to build at home and stay out of the Russian sphere of influence.

Here, there are two distinct issues involved;

1. Spare parts for items already bought should continue from Russia.

2. India must limit the purchase of any new items from Russia.

The first question is a non-starter. India cannot just dump all the Russian hardware. Any technology transfer underway to make whole weapons or part of them cannot be abandoned. Deals like AK-203 or S-400 have to continue. Any spares supply has to be supplemented with make at home or sourced elsewhere. 

Second, India will not source any new major item from Russia. No new aircraft, missile, tank, destroyer, submarine, ammo, etc. will be bought from Russia. Instead, they will either be manufactured in India as part of the Atamnirbhar program or they will be bought from the West. 

Part one is easier said than done. There is $60 billion Russian hardware with the Indian armed forces sourced in last three decades. It cannot be dumped. It has to wait until it's obsolete.

For the second part, the West prices are triple, mostly extra R&D, training fees, profits and very strict export control rules (US is an example). These will have to be significantly reduced to make these attractive for India to buy. 

Something is going to give in a little while when Russia is occupied in Ukraine. India may opt for western items for some and for others, made in India program will have to be accelerated.

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