Hari Sud’s International View

  Wooing about India's dependence on Russia for arms. How has the Russian-Ukrainian war affected India? There is a very visible impact that expected GDP growth could decline by one percentage point. Also the inflation can touch one or two points higher. These are negative repercussions, but there are also good things to highlight. There is a chance that some industry from China may relocate to India. I bet that America and the UK together with France, who monopolize arms technology worldwide may loosen their controls to let India have better access to defense technology and remove India away from Russia’s defense purchases. In addition, that belligerent China may unleash its fangs in Indo-Pacific, hence US believes that India is a good counter. All this fits into the Indian make at home policy (Atamnirbhar). Recently, a VIP parade has taken place in Delhi. The British Prime Minister was in Delhi; two Secretary (highest officials) from US government have been in discussion with Indi...

  S. Jaishankar and India’s international profile.  Otherwise very quite S. Jaishankar, Indian Minister of Foreign Affairs, went out with a diplomatic comeback when pushed too far by the US and NATO to support their cause in the Russia - war in Ukraine. The US and the West thru their media and diplomatic assertions were critical of India’s neutral stand on the war and critical of India, making cheap energy (Oil) purchases from Russia. He made some outstanding statements that the West took note of and began to make fewer statements against India. The following are some quotes: 1. He said that the West should “remember what happened in Afghanistan less than a year ago, where an entire civil society was thrown under the bus by the world”. Now the west is talking about rule based society. It is swept under the rug when it is not Europe. 2. “India is prepared to step forward in a much more substantive way on the big global issues, including in the multilateral arena," Jaishankar to...

  Seven Weeks of Fighting and the Russians are far from Victory The Ukraine war is not over yet but if we are reading the internet news then there is only one conclusion that the Ukrainians have beaten the hell out of the invading Russians. Whether it is true or not but the West wants you to believe that. Official news channels of Russia and Ukraine are not trustworthy. It would appear that Ukrainian (the West supplied) top attacking anti tank missiles have done a great job knocking out tanks in hundreds. The softer military targets in the military invasion like artillery, support vehicles, mobile radar units have been blasted by Turkish supplied Baryctar UAVs. This combination has proved deadly for the Russians. it Is aided by American Starlink communication system to pinpoint targets. The Russian had no answer to any of these small weapons. Hence they have chosen to withdraw from most of the Northern Ukrainian sector. It has been reported that morale of the Russian troops is low....

  Ukraine‘s hardline attitude….. This war in Ukraine will not end soon. I refuse to believe that Russia will allow Ukraine to slip into US/NATO fold. Hence a few Ukrainian victories aside, the war does not favour Ukraine. President Zelensky is mislead completely. He prefers to rule the rubble than a well managed state. ‘’Are Sanctions Working?” It is 6 weeks that the strictest of the much heralded sanctions by US and NATO countries were imposed on Russia. The sanctions were not only on import and export but also froze assets very cleverly held by the West belonging to Russia. They froze including cannot withdraw $700 billion held by Russia in various financial instruments. All banking transactions by Russia and to Russia were put on a hold Etc. The US assumption was these sanctions will cripple Russia and they would hastily retreat and say sorry…… not really. Six weeks since the sanctions, the war is continuing unabated. Russia is very close to establish a land bridge from Crimean ...

 Chinese invasion of Taiwan The Russian invasion of Ukraine was neither successful nor lost. This is a great lesson for China as it prepares to invade Taiwan. The Chinese calendar was for this fall's invasion, but the reaction of the U.S. to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and all these economic sanctions against Russia has somewhat discouraged China. Russia is a fortress nation that sits on a stack of oil reserves, critical supply of metals, food grains and other chemicals. Each of these are needed, hence a temporary disruption aside these supplies would continue. In case of China which is totally dependent on the consumer goods manufacture & exports and supply chain intermediary products, the impact will be dramatic and negative.  China, as strategic analysts in the West believe that their plan is to quickly overwhelm Taiwan's defenses before any help arrives. It is only 80 miles of sea their armed forces have to cross and to land. They believe they can take Taiwan in a ...

 Is Russia at Fault or US/NATO at Fault in Ukraine Invasion of Ukraine was Russia’s mistake. That should not have happened, despite the fact that all the persuasions had failed. After all, Ukrainians are Russia’s kin and they should have treated each other as disagreeing cousins. In addition, Ukraine had been part of Russia for over 300 years, so it was the moral duty of Ukrainians not to be carried away by Western propaganda.  NATO/US, knew very well that their machination to enlist Ukraine will drive Russia mad, but they still did it. A drama artist with no knowledge of politics was elected as leader (all paid by the West) and he set the ball rolling to invite NATO to Ukraine. When this issue was raised, the Russians chose to force regime change. Then it was a matter of time when the Russian would strike. They did it on February 24, 2022. It was their worst ever decision. Approximately 150,000 Russian troops with tanks, missiles and helicopters entered Ukraine. Hardly did th...

 Negative impact of US Sanctions  The punitive sanctions that the United States imposed on Russia were designed to crush its economy. That type of sanctions has never been applied to any rival before. Now Russia has been cut off from the banking system, prohibited dollar transactions, isolated Russia’s central bank, etc. Russia cannot seek relief from the IMF or the World Bank as these are also US controlled institutions. No one completely understood the impact of these sanctions back on the United States itself. But regardless of the reverse impact on the United States themselves, they celebrate the punishment they have applied to Russia. Today, there are a few countries in the $2 trillion or $3 trillion economy considering turning away from the dollar as the dominant international currency.  No other currency comes to mind to replace the almighty dollar, but this movement in the minds of major economies to replace the dollar has begun. That's bad news for U.S. politicia...