Is the War in Ukraine going to Reshape the Global order

 Is the war in Ukraine going to reshape the global order?

Russia and the United States/NATO bet their reputation on the outcome of the war in Ukraine. If Russia manages to get its way and stop Ukraine becoming a NATO member then they have every chance to improve their position in the world power structure. If the US manages to get its way and force Russia to a dead end, then they have managed to gain additional status. It is the neutral countries whose status may undergo a change. Let's take the example of China... It is being courted by both Russia and US. In this context, Russia needs no military aid from China, unless of course there is a threat of the Third World War. That possibility is remote, hence what Russia needs from China is helping hand in overcoming sanctions imposed by the US. China has a $3 trillion cash reserve, they can make it available part of it until the Russian cash of $700 billion is unfrozen. In addition, China could buy Russian oil and gas independent of Russian gas sales to Western Europe. Also help to obtain the absolutely essential items Russia needs, which is to minimize the impact of the Sanctions. In turn, China has an ally as China decides to overrun Taiwan in the near future. The Chinese invasion of Taiwan is a foregone conclusion. The time frame had already been set for this Autumn but it has been put on hold. But it will happen sooner than later, because an opportunity like this, when the big powers are busy in their mutual antagonism, will not arrive at Chinese disposal again in the near future. So this will happen, although its success cannot be predicted as Taiwan is militarily very strong and well armed. But who knows, prudence may prevail in Chinese minds and they put this invasion on hold.

Therefore, to reduce its lost prestige and its position in international affairs, Russia has no choice but to win in Ukraine. A victory will involve the permanent neutralization of Ukraine, all sanctions withdrawn and Western Europe remains like before a customer of oil and gas from Russia. 

For US to call it a victory, the neutral Ukraine gets a greater commercial and military relations with Western Europe (probably European Economic Community membership), Russia returns the port cities on the Black Sea back to Ukraine, but keeps Crimean  peninsula, takes its military forces away and out of Ukraine. 

All this accelerates Chinese accent to world power status. …… 

For neutral India, the rise of the Chinese is not a good news. Also, the United States will carry out silent reprisals against India for its failure to support the United States. They may decide to slow the process of QUAD formation. That again is subject to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Then the USA would need every ally in Asia they can have. Still, there is a lot on trade, technology and CAATSA, the US could do to let India know about their displeasure. Time will tell whether India comes out ahead or falls behind in its modernization drive.


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