IDF Posts of Hari Sud ….. February 2022.
Slow Russian Progress in Ukraine
Battle lines are drawn in Ukraine. It is now East versus West. The Russians could not achieve a quick victory as they wanted. Rather, it is a war where victory will come after considerable loss of life and property. The West has control of the media, hence getting its own version heard, whereas there is a considerable merit in Russian version that they do not wish to see the US/NATO at their border. That is a point on which a lot of people agree. Most people in the world would disagree that.... Was it necessary to invade Ukraine militarily? That is where the Russians have gone wrong and as it takes longer and longer to achieve victory all those people who otherwise would agree with Russia are turning away from the invasion.
There is no question in my mind that the Americans have played more than a spectator in last 8 years. They were aiding and abetting the right wing revolution in Ukraine. Current President Zelensky, by profession, is a playwright, humorist and prankster. He is not a politician who has an in-depth knowledge of politics or international affairs. That is what he was doing until 2019. Americans thought that he is the right guy for their manipulation and take over. That happened classically. First came his election, then came advice to irritate the Russians by making the noises about joining NATO. For the public, prosperity in partnering with the West was sold, so the general public became enthusiastic about their enhancement. With all that carried out there was no place for the rapid success of the Russian invasion. Congratulations to America... You have succeeded except there are a considerable number of Russian forces in Ukraine, who will deny you outright victory.
Now either the Russian achieves a quick victory or the United Nation General Assembly with a large majority will censor Russia. Although Russia may give two hoots to the United Nation General Assembly resolution, but it will be great damage to Russian diplomacy.
Russia has lukewarm China on its side and a newly found international beggar in Pakistan on its side. Everyone else will either abstain or vote against Russia.
With regard to the military situation in Ukraine, I salute the Ukrainian armed forces. Although, not prepared for war, they have given a good account of themselves. They have taken away a good amount of sting out of the Russian forces. All the world powers can only send military supplies to Ukraine but will not rush troops. For that Russia has already rattled their nuclear saber. That has scared everybody, including the US. Any slack in Russian success will be a victory for the Ukrainians.
Russia has lukewarm China on its side and a newly found international beggar in Pakistan on its side. Everyone else will either abstain or vote against Russia.
Pakistan’s prosperity is going in the wrong direction.
This Pakistani obsession to grab Kashmir from India for the last 75 years has not yielded any results. It has driven poverty deeper and deeper in Pakistan.
Once prosperous Pakistan with 30% higher per capita GDP in fifties is now 50% lower on a per capita basis. All because excessive basis on military to grab Kashmir, which they are highly unsuccessful. Pakistani Military is incapable of grabbing Kashmir in the face of a very strong Indian military, but will not give up. Military sponsored civilian leaders like Imran Khan keep on putting more and more money into the military and ignores the economic needs of the nation.
In fact economically weaker Pakistan is good for India as well as rest of the world. It makes them dependent upon others and dance to their tune. It danced to the American tune from 1954 to 2016 and for the last 8 years dancing to the Chinese tune.
India want Pakistan to stay as a “Pauper“, although it is capable of prosperity with huge land mass of plains and all irrigated by mighty rivers.
Nay!….. Pakistan has no interest in its people‘s welfare, because it has created a useless monstrous Army which only threatens but in not capable of any victory. It grabs all the money instead of Kashmir. For the latter, they are so afraid with modernized Indian Army that they dare not step beyond their well marked borders and their cantonments areas.
‘’Wish you well Pakistan but mend your ways. Otherwise a public revolution is a near certainty. Hungry and unclothed people dump all Islamic slogans and go after the wrong doers that include civil and military leadership.
This Pakistani obsession to grab Kashmir from India for the last 75 years has not yielded any results. It has driven poverty deeper and deeper in Pakistan.
Once prosperous Pakistan with 30% higher per capita GDP in fifties is now 50% lower on a per capita basis. All because excessive basis on military to grab Kashmir, which they are highly unsuccessful. Pakistani Military is incapable of grabbing Kashmir in the face of a very strong Indian military, but will not give up. Military sponsored civilian leaders like Imran Khan keep on putting more and more money into the military and ignores the economic needs of the nation.
In fact economically weaker Pakistan is good for India as well as rest of the world. It makes them dependent upon others and dance to their tune. It danced to the American tune from 1954 to 2016 and for the last 8 years dancing to the Chinese tune.
India want Pakistan to stay as a “Pauper“, although it is capable of prosperity with huge land mass of plains and all irrigated by mighty rivers.
Nay!….. Pakistan has no interest in its people‘s welfare, because it has created a useless monstrous Army which only threatens but in not capable of any victory. It grabs all the money instead of Kashmir. For the latter, they are so afraid with modernized Indian Army that they dare not step beyond their well marked borders and their cantonments areas.
‘’Wish you well Pakistan but mend your ways. Otherwise a public revolution is a near certainty. Hungry and unclothed people dump all Islamic slogans and go after the wrong doers that include civil and military leadership.
The Wests compulsions in Ukraine Fight
Whereas Ukrainians are fighting the Russians alone; the West has sent missiles and anti tank weapons which will never reach the Ukrainian combatants. So in other words, they are alone with moral support of the whole West. Good luck to them.
On the other hand the West is bombing the Russians with sanctions which have been proven not to work. Even the US Secretary of State on a recent TV interview admitted that sanctions will take time to work. These type of sanctions on Iran have taken 10 years and have never worked, hence their working on Russia is very doubtful.
The Western Europe imports 70% of its Natural Gas and 50% of oil from Russia. They need it badly. Without it the industry and commerce will come to a halt. Hence not long after the end of War, all sanctions have to lifted before the Russians close the gas and oil tap. That will be too bad. Even an interruption for a week let alone months or years will be a disaster in the making.
Whatever the sanctions impact which is delayed and over a period of time, oil & gas is needed everyday by the Western Europe.
Why US is loudly pronouncing sanctions. In my opinion, they have run out of weapons to fight any enemy let alone a technically competent Russians. Hence for the media they have big announcement of sanctions almost everyday. As these are announced by Washington, then British, German and France follow the suit. They understand that the sanction impact in minimal if you are not a large global trading country. Russians are not.
What the Ukrainians need is end of the war and destruction. For their solemn promise of not letting the NATO in their country, the Russians will withdraw.
Interestingly, the Ukrainians will need billions and billions of dollars of aid to build themselves back. That is where a Marshal type of Plan (reminiscent of post WW2) will be needed. Russians will go back and lick their wounds. They have also suffered tremendous losses. But the oil prices have shot up $100 a barrel which makes Russian treasury full of dollars. They do not need the Marshal Plan.
The ultimate will be the end of NATO expansion forever. There will be a tremendous distrust of US for bad advice and possibly Germany emerging back as a military and economic power. Russia will continue to be a power but nothing less or nothing more than US. It is Chinese opportunity to emerge as a power, although they have yet to demonstrate technical competence like US or Russia or Germany.
On the other hand the West is bombing the Russians with sanctions which have been proven not to work. Even the US Secretary of State on a recent TV interview admitted that sanctions will take time to work. These type of sanctions on Iran have taken 10 years and have never worked, hence their working on Russia is very doubtful.
The Western Europe imports 70% of its Natural Gas and 50% of oil from Russia. They need it badly. Without it the industry and commerce will come to a halt. Hence not long after the end of War, all sanctions have to lifted before the Russians close the gas and oil tap. That will be too bad. Even an interruption for a week let alone months or years will be a disaster in the making.
Whatever the sanctions impact which is delayed and over a period of time, oil & gas is needed everyday by the Western Europe.
Why US is loudly pronouncing sanctions. In my opinion, they have run out of weapons to fight any enemy let alone a technically competent Russians. Hence for the media they have big announcement of sanctions almost everyday. As these are announced by Washington, then British, German and France follow the suit. They understand that the sanction impact in minimal if you are not a large global trading country. Russians are not.
What the Ukrainians need is end of the war and destruction. For their solemn promise of not letting the NATO in their country, the Russians will withdraw.
Interestingly, the Ukrainians will need billions and billions of dollars of aid to build themselves back. That is where a Marshal type of Plan (reminiscent of post WW2) will be needed. Russians will go back and lick their wounds. They have also suffered tremendous losses. But the oil prices have shot up $100 a barrel which makes Russian treasury full of dollars. They do not need the Marshal Plan.
The ultimate will be the end of NATO expansion forever. There will be a tremendous distrust of US for bad advice and possibly Germany emerging back as a military and economic power. Russia will continue to be a power but nothing less or nothing more than US. It is Chinese opportunity to emerge as a power, although they have yet to demonstrate technical competence like US or Russia or Germany.
Germans and their Defence Expenditures
This rethinking of German defence and offence posture to a much higher spending is a bad news to French and British. Once the Germans re-militarize, they will find an excuse to teach both French and British an old lesson of nineteenth and twentieth century (pre WW2). Ukraine issue will be forgotten as Putin will withdraw post Ukraine assurance not to join NATO. Germans have a lot of outstanding account to settle. All the foregoing was covered up by the victorious allies.
Germans are now the economic masters of the Europe. They will make sure that their military and economic views prevail in Europe. Americans who are very good in loosing wars (Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan) will find an excuse to withdraw their 30,000 troops from Europe. Even if they keep them there, their Supreme Commander will be out-maneuvered and German views will prevail.
Were the Germans waiting for this opportunity. I guess yes! That is why, so quickly during the minor war in Ukraine, they decided to add $100 billion to the military budget and increase yearly defence spending to greater than 2% of GDP.
Hence this minor war is a blessing in disguise for the Germans.
Germans are now the economic masters of the Europe. They will make sure that their military and economic views prevail in Europe. Americans who are very good in loosing wars (Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan) will find an excuse to withdraw their 30,000 troops from Europe. Even if they keep them there, their Supreme Commander will be out-maneuvered and German views will prevail.
Were the Germans waiting for this opportunity. I guess yes! That is why, so quickly during the minor war in Ukraine, they decided to add $100 billion to the military budget and increase yearly defence spending to greater than 2% of GDP.
Hence this minor war is a blessing in disguise for the Germans.
The Unfortunate Russian - Ukrainian war
This Russia - Ukraine war would have never happened today had there was no Mikhail Gorbachev in Russia in the eighties. He listened too much to the United States and abandoned everything they had gained in eastern Europe, including Ukraine. Culturally, Ukraine is much closer to Russia than to Western Europe. At that time the Cold War victorious the West and more successfully US, very successfully broke up the Soviet Union and created a bunch of precarious independent states. Some Soviet possessions had to go, but not Ukraine. They had been part of Russia for at least three hundred years. Also, it was Russian blood spilled to liberate Ukraine from the Nazis during World War II.
Once Soviet Union had been broken up, then unstable Ukraine states and others were created. That was the time that US got the opportunity to permanently tame Russia, which was larger and economically and technically competent to stay as a world power as previously, the Soviets were. That was not acceptable to the West and the US. They wanted to turn Russia into a client state...
Ukraine war is born out of US & NATO desire to extend its borders right upto Russian border in Europe. That was not acceptable to the Russians just as Soviet/Russian coming to Cuba was not acceptable to the Americans in 1962.
Peace will prevail if the US and NATO abandon their expansion at the Russian border and let the people of Ukraine live in peace. This situation is not created by the Russians, it was created by the Americans in 2014 when a neutral government was toppled and a right-wing government supported by America was installed. It was clear that sooner than later the fate of Ukraine will be decided in a battlefield. It has happened now.
The victor of this conflict shall never rest in peace. The loser will spend a lifetime upsetting the balance. As a result, long-term peace is not possible. I pity the Ukrainians who are caught in this "hot" cold war.... So God bless them.
This Russia - Ukraine war would have never happened today had there was no Mikhail Gorbachev in Russia in the eighties. He listened too much to the United States and abandoned everything they had gained in eastern Europe, including Ukraine. Culturally, Ukraine is much closer to Russia than to Western Europe. At that time the Cold War victorious the West and more successfully US, very successfully broke up the Soviet Union and created a bunch of precarious independent states. Some Soviet possessions had to go, but not Ukraine. They had been part of Russia for at least three hundred years. Also, it was Russian blood spilled to liberate Ukraine from the Nazis during World War II.
Once Soviet Union had been broken up, then unstable Ukraine states and others were created. That was the time that US got the opportunity to permanently tame Russia, which was larger and economically and technically competent to stay as a world power as previously, the Soviets were. That was not acceptable to the West and the US. They wanted to turn Russia into a client state...
Ukraine war is born out of US & NATO desire to extend its borders right upto Russian border in Europe. That was not acceptable to the Russians just as Soviet/Russian coming to Cuba was not acceptable to the Americans in 1962.
Peace will prevail if the US and NATO abandon their expansion at the Russian border and let the people of Ukraine live in peace. This situation is not created by the Russians, it was created by the Americans in 2014 when a neutral government was toppled and a right-wing government supported by America was installed. It was clear that sooner than later the fate of Ukraine will be decided in a battlefield. It has happened now.
The victor of this conflict shall never rest in peace. The loser will spend a lifetime upsetting the balance. As a result, long-term peace is not possible. I pity the Ukrainians who are caught in this "hot" cold war.... So God bless them.
Russian And Sanctions on Them by US
Sooner than later the Russians will capture Kiev and remove the present pro west government. Their purpose done…… Russian will announce withdrawal. That will disarm the West. The new Ukrainian government will renounce violence as well desire to be part of the NATO. Then the West with its loud mouth sanctions will be rendered speechless.
Most of the sanctions are useless and have no impact. Iran have had all the sanctions with no visible impact, hence sanctions are paper tigers and for their journalists something to write and fill up the newspaper Columns.
For Western Europe, it is Russia, the only source of energy. America cannot supply it. The Arabian energy in large amounts is difficult to ship. Moreover, if the West persists, it will suit the Arabs fine as the high prices at about $100 will stay. Bad news for rest of the world.
After load protestations, starting with US trying to enrol Ukraine in NATO, the Western Europe will come to terms. They need Russian gas and shaking hands is the only way to get it. This shake hand may take six months as Americans will keep on throwing roadblocks as they have nothing to loose, but finally the Western Europe will be pally-pally with Russia.
Hence who is the looser…… Ukraine is the most looser, US will loose a lot of prestige as their loud mouth campaign did not work. The gainers will be the Russians who delivered a stern message to Ukraine and over anxious former Soviet states in Europe. Each of them will think twice to take on Russia In the future.
Most of the sanctions are useless and have no impact. Iran have had all the sanctions with no visible impact, hence sanctions are paper tigers and for their journalists something to write and fill up the newspaper Columns.
For Western Europe, it is Russia, the only source of energy. America cannot supply it. The Arabian energy in large amounts is difficult to ship. Moreover, if the West persists, it will suit the Arabs fine as the high prices at about $100 will stay. Bad news for rest of the world.
After load protestations, starting with US trying to enrol Ukraine in NATO, the Western Europe will come to terms. They need Russian gas and shaking hands is the only way to get it. This shake hand may take six months as Americans will keep on throwing roadblocks as they have nothing to loose, but finally the Western Europe will be pally-pally with Russia.
Hence who is the looser…… Ukraine is the most looser, US will loose a lot of prestige as their loud mouth campaign did not work. The gainers will be the Russians who delivered a stern message to Ukraine and over anxious former Soviet states in Europe. Each of them will think twice to take on Russia In the future.
Hari Sud
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