India- US relations post January 20th.

(Published in defence forum on January 20th.)

 India -US could not hit out together even culturally and naturally we are close to each other, a lot more closer than either Chinese were or will be and Pakistanis whose fundamental organization wish death & destruction except who is not Muslim. Then why we seem to be coming closer as in last four years then drift apart before we close close enough. US has undergone a dramatic shift in its politics with a lifetime leftist personality becoming the President. If Indian came closer during right wing Trump presidency then with Joe Biden as the new person in charge either the relationship will be frozen at current state or begin drift apart.

US ambassador to India Ken Juster let the cat out of bag. If Indian does not relent to US demands of minor trade issues and continue to buy the S-400 anti missile system from Russia then he said take for guaranteed, India will get sanctioned and future relationship is in Jeopardy. ...... Think again. The missile system in question is not much of the issue, it is the denial of US military planes to fly over India is denied. They don’t care about Chinese and Pakistani planes and missiles shot down, they care about their own planes being shot down. Moreover $5 billion in Russian pocket is bothering them US too much. Moreover US does not have a comparable product. One small component to tie a number of Russian, Indian system into one one and co-ordinate is being purchased from US for about $1 billion.

Trade is least of the issues. Ambassador Ken Juster is listing an issue for future talks. Trump had made trade as main issue of his presidency. He failed miserably with China, Canada and Mexico. He could not alter the trade equilibrium there. A few very minor changes were made with trade deal with Canada/Mexico. With China he put 10% to 20% import duty on $300 billion of Chinese imports, which is not worth a lot. It did not force Chinese to import more of US grain. Rather whatever consumer bought earlier were more more expensive hence everyday consumer was the looser. He or she had to pay more from his tax paid income. Hence the whole trade issue with China is a failure. Had he ordered cut back in imports from China, told the Wall Street to invest less in China and worked hard to develop alternative supply routes outside of China, in three years the situation would be different. The great China would have been tamed.

India has hardly any trade issues with US. If you wish to pick up a fight then you list high import duty on American made motor cycles etc. In a single hand shake all these trade issues will disappear. But if you want lower import duty on motor cycle then you would have to remove all restrictions on H1 Visa etc. Hence no trade deal could be reached. This will end up in a fiasco, same way as the China import duties are turning into a fiasco. But in order to keep the issue burning, US will keep harping on trade deal.

So where do we go from here with a less sympathetic new President Of US. India is lead by a very competent Prime Minister. He does not take a second place to none. If US orders Sanctions, India can take US name out from import deal of $20 billion MMRTCA fighter import program. US f-16 and f-18 are top contenders for this deal. Now think who is a bigger looser, the US companies who would have supplied the planes or sanctioned items or persons in India who would not be allowed entry into US. Remember, the current Indian leadership is not Anglophilic. They were born and bread in India. They can forego visiting US. Looser in US.

In addition that major QUAD initiative is on hold in India awaiting for new US president to spell out his policy. If is rude and rough then QUAD will not get off the ground. India is the fourth leg of this program. With Indian reluctance, containment of China in South and North China Sea will fall apart. Now think who is a bigger looser. It is definitely US.

Hence before Ambassador ken Juster opens his mouth too wide, consider all the i,-locations. India is not a pushover. China just learnt last year and Pakistan has been learning for the last 20 years after Kargil defeat.