Chinese Insignificant Threat in Indian Ocean

 

Chinese insignificant Threat in Indian Ocean

China’s military threat in Indian Ocean is insignificant. Their much heralded brand new navy is short on experience and much big in numbers. Almost all of it is copied technology which when push comes to shove, may not work. Almost a greater portion of their navy including aircraft carriers and nuclear subs do not attempt to go into the deep. They are culturally afraid of the deep and the Admirals are not confident that their flotilla can survive a travel or action in the deep. Their string of pearls bases are worthless as the host country could withdraw permission to go their ports under hostilities.


Hence...... what is the Chinese threat in the Indian Ocean.

It is free cash which Chinese can shower upon anybody who wants it. They are prepared to build worthless roads network under false pretext of Chinese goods loading and unloading at Gawadar, Pakistan; when they know it is next to impossible to trade via a 14000 foot high Khunjreb Pass. Or offer to build a transit port in Sri Lanka, Maldives, Myanmar, Thailand etc. All this cash is export cash surplus, mostly from US and Europe where third rate Chinese goods are sold cheap and cash is generated unhindered by import equalizing tax. They have a $3 Trillion cash surplus kitty which they have been showering upon third world countries of Indian Ocean basin. Until the Corona pandemic they were persuading all countries of central Asia and Eastern Europe to allow them to build “one road one belt” from China to Europe with their money (about $1 Trillion), of course the host country will have to return the money back with 6% interest over a period of time. Additional condition apply that the host country will not charge any transit fee on Chinese traffic. ...... What a bad deal offered. Most of the countries where the road is to be built were short on cash and hence would welcome any cash and road building.

Hence my point is that in next 20 years, no matter how big the Chinese Navy becomes, they are untrained and unused to sea warfare, hence they are no significant threat. The real threat is the cash the Chinese shower at high interest rates which increases their influence and hence their power. Chinese know that too, hence little countries coming under their influence is a welcome development. Now they can replace American cash and influence In Indian Ocean Region and Central Asia. One thing which the Chinese forget is that American aid was mostly grants or very low interest loan by World Bank or IMF. On the other hand Chinese are handing over high interest loans which could force tiny countries into bankruptcy.

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