Europe in the Middle of Energy Muddle

 Europe in the Middle of Energy Muddle

Did you say that Europe is in the middle of a Gas squeeze, then I agree? 

About 24% of the Europe’s Energy requirement is met with Gas piped from Russia to Germany and other central distribution points. Another 34% of Europe’s energy requirement is met by oil, 13% by Nuclear and remaining 30% is met by Coal and renewable sources. Overall, around 58% of the EU's energy needs originate from outside sources. Of this, 24% of gas is made available by Russia in a good commercial arrangement. Over the last 15 to 20 years, gas has reached the EU on multiple pipelines. Prior to Ukraine war, it was a good buddy-buddy arrangement. 

The US/NATO never factored Gas supply interruption when they escalated tension in Europe, by trying to Get Ukraine into NATO. The Russian invasion of Ukraine during the spring of this year worsened the situation. If the war was a quick job and the Ukraine was forced to cease & desist from Joining NATO, then today’s Gas supplies discussion would be unnecessary. But obviously the war will continue through this winter, so supply shortages are a real problem.

In early September, the pipeline under the Baltic Sea was closed on the pretext of maintenance, which lasted over a few days. Then, in the last week of September, it was known that the undersea pipeline (1 & 2) have been sabotaged, which will take months to repair, hence how will the supply shortfall be met.It is a good question. There are other Gas pipelines running from Russia to Europe. Even these pipelines face severely restricted Gas flows. The Yamal-Europe pipeline, which historically transported gas from Russia to Europe has a restricted flow. In addition, pipeline supply via Ukraine decreased after the start of the Ukraine war. So far, 80% of Europe's gas supply has been cut short.  

Is this going to freeze Europe over the coming winter?

This is very unlikely. 

The German’s have their storages 85% full. They can go on with solid conservation measures for 2 to 3 months of winter. Other EU countries like Czech, Hungary, Austria, Slovakia, etc. have a limited storage capacity, hence have to find quick alternative sources. The real problem is Ukraine, which in the middle of war have no gas storage, hence have to fend for itself.

This war in Europe is far from over. Russia has already annexed 4 provinces and the Ukraine and the rest of US/NATO are unlikely to let them get away with it, hence the war is going to continue. This winter will be the most difficult one compounded by Gas shortages.

The war mongers in Moscow, Brussels and Washington never factored a long war in Ukraine, hence the Gas supply interruption never came to their mind. Now they face a real cold, uncertain winter. 

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