Hari Sud’s International View

 Chinese Threat in Himalayas Chinese are no longer a threat except third rate Author like Pravin Sawhney overstate that threat. He is selling a book not security. The Chinese have actually mastered two things, —- stealth and propaganda. They occupied a few peaks in Ladakh stealthily in 2020 and attacked an unarmed Indian party in Galwan. That they attributed it as a victory. Victory or not, India reacted strongly and started to confront Chinese at the heights with a bigger military force. Unfortunately a few politicians and China friendly media agreed with them. Chinese later were totally surprised when India stealthily occupied Kailash Heights and put their garrison at Moldo within Indian gun range. They quickly negotiated withdrawal. Other withdrawals were long conversations at the Commander's meet. One thing was clear: they were negotiating, prestige and not withdrawal. Now they knew that the Indian Army has arrived in Ladakh in strength and there is no further headway.  Th...

 Why is U.S.-India relations down? This is not the first time that relations between the United States and India have experienced problems. It has happened three times before (1954, 1981 and 2001) and every time all the diplomatic and political relationships built is allowed to take a back seat in favor military expediency. This time it is the killing of an unimportant Al Qaida leader  Ayman al-Zawahiri. Pakistan had full knowledge of his whereabouts and would tell only if $6.5 billion IMF loan is approved and $450 million military upgrade package for old and outmoded F-16 built in 1984/85 is approved. The US has thrown ten years of diplomatic effort of India-US relations reset, under the bus.  This $450 million of military assistance approved in August 2022 will make Pakistan more warlike and they will find an excuse to start another war. US diplomats all through the period 1954 till 2022 were reassuring India of great mutually beneficial trade and economic relationship ...

  UK- India Relations UK and India relations have never been cordial, not in last 75 years, although commercial business continued. UK is an ex colonial power hence it still wants to maintain its pre-eminent position at the head of the table. This was alright with the Congress Party when for 60 years they were in power. Most of its high operatives were either British graduates or were somehow connected to the British interests, hence they were soft on them. The situation changed when BJP came to power. All those British influence in politics, diplomacy and military began to decline. Modi and his cohorts were not anti British and were not their supporters either. They wished Indian brand in everything, not British brand. They began the process of decolonization slowly first by removing British trained officials in every walk of life. Most of Modi’s inner circle boys have no connection to Britain. Then came the flight of financial fugitives to Britain. Even if the British courts said...

  Is China an Adversary or Enemy of the West? It is not highly unexpected that China continues to suckle the US’s breast to stay strong and healthy but confront it wherever it can. Take, for example, China's diplomatic and political support for Russia in the Ukrainian war. It has now gone from being quasi-neutral to supporting Russia. The other example is that China came close to unleashing a war of its own during the Nancy Pelosi visit to Taiwan. It withdrew from its actions only when the US prepared to face the semi-trained Chinese military and then the Chinese withdrew.  Would that make China an enemy...? No, not yet. China exports a trillion dollars to the U.S. and Europe. They cannot afford to jeopardize that. As a result, the Chinese are certainly not enemies, but certainly become an adversary.  As an adversary, they cleverly wink at Russia to continue the war, but also shake hands with the West and continue to do business. They have shifted the Taiwan issue to the ...

 India built battlefield Drones and UAVs for China border The Turkish UAV Bayraktar gave Azerbaijan the victory over Armenia. Later same was true in Syrian war. Now in the Ukraine war in the beginning, the Russian forces were held up or destroyed by the same Turkish drone. Honestly, like it or not, but tanks, fighters and the importance of artillery will be reduced with drones/UAV. Future battles will be fought with these and fully autonomous flying objects equipped with artificial intelligence, with the ground controller sitting hundreds of kilometers away and steering them.  Finally, when the push came to shove, then the rush began in India to incorporate drones. Indian built Tapas-1 drone was tested 15 years, but then put on the back burner in favor of imports. Now the Indian armed forces have a large number of UAVs mainly of Israeli-origin, for real-time reconnaissance and precision-targeting. The air force also has Israeli Harop "killer" or Kamikaze drones that act like ...

 Bayraktar type drone in India Can the Indian military bureaucracy reorient itself to direct the country’s money from fighter jets, aircraft carriers, tanks and armored vehicles to newest fighting technologies of UAVs and artificial intelligence drones etc.? Today, the battles in Ukraine are not so much with tanks and planes, but more with missiles, drones and drones. The goal is to catch the enemy by surprise from a UAV flying at low altitude, hardly detectable and with long endurance. It has changed the nature of the war.  In the Middle East and the Ukraine wars of the last three years, UAVs have played a role. Turkey's Bayraktar-TB2 construction played a vital role in Azerbaijan's victory over Armenia. In Ukraine, Bayraktar-TB2 sold by Turkey blasted the Russian tanks and armored columns advancing towards Kiev. It is still in use and at $5 million or less a piece it is expendable.  In performance, it is nowhere close to the American MQ-9, but you can buy ten of Bayrakt...

 The US will Continue War with Russia The Americans have nothing to lose... Nothing at all, even if the war in Ukraine lasts another 10 years. It is the Ukrainians who are dying, they will continue to suffer. If anybody else who would suffer, it will be European nations who are supporting the US. In fact, the U.S. is 5,000 miles away and has provided some military support, but not enough to make a difference in the war. A similar tepid support has come from the European nations. They are more vocal while controlling the airwaves & internet, but not enough military support to make a difference. Russia has already built a land bridge from Crimean to Russia and no power either US or European can take it away from them. As a matter of fact, Crimea had been a Russian territory for the last 300 years. Only about 90 years back for administrative reasons, it was transferred to Ukraine by Stalin. They have now taken it back. The US involvement is to inflict as much military and economic...

 Chinese Bullet Trains to nowhere Everybody has heard of Chinese default on their real estate loans of $2 trillion; but there is another story of similar magnitude which is under the covers. They borrowed heavily to finance their expensive High Speed Train (Bullet Train) building, but are unable to meet the interest payments on the monies borrowed, hence another big default is coming.  Wildly building to showcase their economic prowess, Chinese planners have failed to take into account realistic passenger-kilometer traffic revenue. It turned out to be far below their debt servicing cost. This debacle, including a few others*, has heavily piled up against their total national debt and its servicing costs. Such mindless investments are a major financial headache for China. It is only exports of consumer goods to the United States and Europe that guarantee that any money spent unnecessarily will be repaid, if ever. *Belt & Road Initiative is another example. Fifteen years bac...