China War scenario 2020 to 2030

 Chinese 2020/22 unfriendly Act in Ladakh - Part 1

Chinese numerical and infrastructure advantage has been neutralized at the LAC in Ladakh. In addition, their equipment is not robust enough to be reliable in cold air and rarefied heights of 14-20,000 feet. One great disadvantage Chinese suffers is that most of Tibet is a plateau of 4,000 feet and when soldiers come to reinforce from the plateau to the heights, it is a hell of a difficult job. In addition, the Chinese rotate troops between the Sinkiang region and Tibet, so all troops have to be acclimatized for heights first and then reinforce. Yes, the same disadvantage remains for the Indian troops also but because for the Indian reinforcements the mountain starts from Pathankote. The heights are gently scaled from 1,100 feet in Pathankote to 5,000 feet in Srinagar and pass through 14,000 feet Zozila Pass and to 8,500 feet Leh. Then they climb to 14,000 feet of mountains to confront the Chinese. The troops remain within the acclimation zone for two weeks. For this aspect, most of the uninformed writers give the Chinese a big advantage due to the short climbs, but miss the acclimatization aspect, which is actually a big disadvantage. The last non Chinese press reports stated that in 2020/21, that about 30% of the Chinese were sick because of the non acclimatized climb from 4,000 feet to 14,000 feet. Their equipment, which has yet to be tested, is a lot worse. The new Chinese equipment, where oil and lubricants freeze at -40 degrees, does not talk about their combat capability.

(The author is resident of the mountains of Himachal Pradesh) 

Although authors like P. Sawhney in his recent writing still thinks the Chinese might conquer Ladakh in ten days, but he has become a spokesman of the Chinese army. The insurmountable natural obstacles and the presence of equal Indian forces make this dream almost impossible…….

Posted on August 19

Continued, Part 2……

Chinese Deception at LAC in Ladakh

Chinese in the spring of 2020 crossed the well set respected LAC with a definitive occupation plan. The plan was to exclude any threat to their Sinkiang - Tibet Highway, which passes through AkasChin plateau. As the Chinese economy swelled with exports of third rate but cheap merchandise in early 2010s, an aggressive new president Xi Jinping began to plan a militarily occupation of areas which Deng Xiaoping had put on the back burner. To this, Chinese deliberately opened up the Doklam issue in 2017 but retreated as Chinese found themselves in an inferior military position. But they found LAC in Ladakh opposite their highway as an easy place to simply walk-in and occupy without being challenged.

They ingresses at four points…..1) Galwan river area. 2) Pangong Lake area. 3) Gogra & Hot spring Area. 4) Start a fight in Spanggur bowl. Other areas like Demchok in the south of Ladakh and Depsang Plains in the north were not ingresses but disputed to prevent patrolling.

On its face value, who the hell wish to occupy a mountain waste land at 14,000 feet or more. Strategically Chinese were closing possible Indian ingress points to their AkashChin Highway. A very clever move which the Indian Army understood and reinforced, but Indian media was unable to comprehend. It was all about safeguarding themselves and their highway.

After the Galwan Clash, although the Chinese lied about the beating they received, they withdrew 5 km along the river. Moreover the Indian positions on Gogra and Hotspring threatened the Chinese supply line to their Galwan position, hence to-date, neither India nor Chinese are prepared to yield after 2 years and14 commander level talks. The only position Chinese were forced to withdraw was at the northern shore of Pangong Lake because on August 29/30, Indian SFF occupied Kailash Heights and threatened their positions on the northern shore of the lake. Three months later they withdrew 4-6km also, provided India vacates the Kailash Heights, which India did and also disengaged at Chusul bowl. Both sides refuse to yield on Gogra and Hotspring and the dispute will continue.

Depsang Plains is a tank country and very close to India’s northernmost post of Daulat Beg Oldi. Chinese wish to occupy the plains, but Indian Army with better tanks & mountain artillery is standing guard to prevent it. In the southern end in Demchoke, the area, is eyed by both and threats have been neutralized by the Indian Army

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Part 3…….Indian infrastructure in Ladakh

Continued Part 3

India military infrastructure at LAC in Ladakh

China gets very angry if India builds roads, depots and other infrastructure at LAC. They think that it is a God given right to them only. India did not build any major road network for 30 years from the eighties to early in this century. Whatever Chinese needed, they had already built illegally from fifties onward. 

It is only when an Indian strategic road connecting Leh with Daulet Beg Oldi (Darbuk-Shyok-DBO road) parallel to river Indus was built in 2017, which burnt their backside. They felt that if DBO gets connected to Leh, then most of the Chinese advantages to capture the Karrakoram range are lost. Hence, they felt they must act to block it. They picked Galwan River valley area where the DSDBO is nearer to the Chinese presence, hence began testing Indian defenses. The June 15/16, 2020 clash was the result of that. The Chinese were well prepared and used an exercise tactic to transfer large numbers of soldiers to the region. They were successful and killed 20 Indian soldiers in a fist fight. Although, they refuse to admit, but they lost a lot more. 

Chinese were sore about DSDBO road, but India was finally building a lot more. A major Indian military presence has been built at Galwan so the Chinese will never try to interdict this route. The Chinese saw it and retreated 5km along the river. Conscious that the Chinese will interdict this route in the future, India has built a new connection to Leh's DBO via Sasoma connecting Murgo to DSDBO.

In addition India is connecting Manali in Himachal Pradesh via Rohtang Pass to Leh via BaraLacha Pass. The road is still under construction and will be completed in a few years. This is the highest mountain route ever built, approximately 450km. Now Ladakh is well connected. It will be further facilitated by finishing of all weather ZojiLa Pass from Srinagar to Leh.

Roads connecting the forward areas are under construction and these connect the main roads to posts. That is why the Chinese now have no chance for surprise and superior infrastructure.

In addition, multiple landing grounds have been built in Ladakh, where large aircrafts can land namely,

1. Daulat Beg Oldi ALG

2. Nyoma ALG

3. Fukche ALG

In other worlds, good work has been done on upgrading LAC's infrastructure in Ladakh. Chinese will continue to search for areas to pinprick India. In return, India is able to do the same and keep the Chinese unbalanced.

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Part 4…… How a conflict will unfold?

Continued Part 4……

How the India - China conflict unfolds in 2030

Today is 2030, and Narinder Modi retired two years ago as Prime Minister. The new prime minister is facing political opposition, although no leader of the opposition parties has emerged to challenge the BJP. The 2029 elections was a regular affair, but there were internal dissensions within the party, hence a change at the federal level was overdue.

The Chinese, in their infinite wisdom, thought this was the ideal time to exert pressure on India to accept the LAC dictated by the Chinese and control of Tawang in the Arunachal Pradesh. The Chinese had not been able to implement their will over Taiwan, where tension in the east was high as before. The QUAD of Japan, Australia, US & India had not fully secured its charter of mutual defence but military exercises on larger scale had continued.  

In 2030, India was about to hit the $10 trillion GDP mark, and over the last five years it has started to spend a lot more on defence. It’s Army was very secure in Ladakh and In the East. It’s Army had been modernized, the navy had three aircraft carriers & 5 nuclear submarines and its Airforce had highly agile foreign and locally made fighters with capability to shoot hundreds of miles away.

In addition, China has had a new leader for the past three years. He wished to implement his will in Asia, hence he picked arch rival India to teach a lesson. He was starting to exert pressure on the Indian Ocean and wanted to capture or control Andaman Island. With its capture they would implement their will on the Straits of Malacca. 

Here's how they did it:

They escalated a patrolling dispute in Arunachal Pradesh but did not begin a shooting war, but they escalated at sea. A large armada of aircraft carriers, submarines, frigates, landing crafts and destroyers was dispatched to the Indian Ocean to intimidate India. Within 10 days they were supposed to reach the Indian Ocean with ulterior motives.

India assembled its own navy and was at the mouth of the Strait of Malacca. Naval and Air Arm of the Airforce were activated from the Andaman Island. India was ready for any emergency.

Now there was a good chance of naval engagement at the western mouth of the Straits  Malacca. It was then that the Chinese navy split its fleet into two. One remained at the Straits and the other one turned around and attempted passage into the Indian Ocean thru the Indonesian Straits of Sunda. That permission was denied by Indonesia. 

The bottled Chinese fleet hence decided to up the ante. Their lone submarine, which had been in the Indian Ocean was ordered to seek and torpedo an Indian destroyer. Two days later, it found an Indian mine sweeper without escort and torpedoed it with 95 people on board. It was a major loss for India. Indian P8i planes could not find the offending submarine. Chinese rejoiced the shooting in a cleverly worded diplomatic message  to India not to escalate any further. 

India ignored the message and set its sight on the capture of Chinese listening post in Myanmar at the CoCo Island. It took one day to overrun the listening post and capture 130 Chinese officials as prisoners of war. In five days time, the Chinese submarine was located closer to the Iranian coast. A major operation was mounted to sink it. That is where QUAD capability at sea became useful. Once located, the submarine was shot at but escaped. It surfaced again to charge its batteries and a single shot from P8i missile hit it hard. It was never heard of again. Chinese radio broadcasts began to air somber music, indicating that the vessel is lost.

This is when a serious discussion in the world capitals began to defuse the situation. America rushed its fleet from the Persian Gulf and Madetreanean Sea to the Indian Ocean. 

The Chinese were not interested in listening; they wanted war. The Indian Ocean is already lost to them, hence they began a land campaign with India in Arunachal Pradesh. 

Their new campaign never materialized as India stood strong and fast. Now they began to listen to discussions at the UN.