India’s Neighbourhood Tit Wits - June 5, 2022
Pakistan
With the withdrawal of the US and other western nations aid from Pakistan has made them financially desperate. For the last 50 years they played double game in the region and got American financial and military aid for free. That time is over and although Americans knew all about it but could do nothing as they were kind of ideologically stuck in Afghanistan as well as rest of Middle East. Hence military aid was free and so were IMF money which came for almost free. Whatever was short, they turned to China. Who lent them monies and road building help at 6% interest. Chinese do not give anything free.
Today, the Chinese loans are getting due. Their next benefactor Saudi Arabia will help on condition that they position their troops in Yemen to help Saudi Arabia. That the Pakistani refuse to do. The Chinese built road CPEC is a big financial blunder. No large scale Chinese trade will ever pass the high (12,000 feet) mountain. Chinese mislead Pakistanis in that roads commercial value. Their $60 billion loan to build the road is due and Pakistanis these days borrow to pay interest on that loan. That is the most stupid situation of Pakistani creation.
The Pakistanis only recently upgraded their defence budget by 6% for this year. When you are bankrupt then the Army is also asked to slim down; but not in Pakistan. There the Army is fighting a virtual war which they cannot win with India. But their local propaganda against India is so strong that nobody dare to slim the Army down.
If ever Pakistan starts a 1965 or 1971 or 1999 war, they are most likely to loose big, but also loose so badly that Pakistan may loose its identity completely. That is their choice…… Kashmir or Pakistani bankruptcy.
India is $3 trillion economy as opposed to less than $350 billion Pakistani economy. It has $600 billion foreign reserves as opposed to $10 billion for Pakistan. Pakistan cannot match except western encouraged media propaganda gives a false impression.
India can outspend Pakistan in any field including army, navy or airforce. It has already done so in last 8 years. Now Indian defence forces are more muscular than anytime before, hence Pakistan is afraid of undertaking any Mumbai or Kashmir type terror acts. As of now, they have resorted to pistol type civilian shooting in Kashmir. Any big action sponsored by them could expect a big Indian retaliation which Pakistanis may not be able to control.
Any Western free aid is out of question. They have to refine their ways of conducting themselves locally, in the neighbourhood and internationally. Duplicity in relations is unwelcome. Although Pakistanis have perfected the art of duplicity, it is not working between US, China and Russia this time.
Very soon the over confident Pakistani Army will give up. Bankruptcy will be the main reasons. Their military budget of $30 billion ($10 billion official and $20 billion hidden in other Pakistani ministries and departments) will have to be reduced not by little but by half. Then only Pakistan will make any headway. That $60 billion Chinese CPEC road network will have to be dumped. Chinese loan repayment at the cost of inter-relations will have to be denied under one excuse or other. Then only Pakistanis will be back on path of progress.
Today, the Chinese loans are getting due. Their next benefactor Saudi Arabia will help on condition that they position their troops in Yemen to help Saudi Arabia. That the Pakistani refuse to do. The Chinese built road CPEC is a big financial blunder. No large scale Chinese trade will ever pass the high (12,000 feet) mountain. Chinese mislead Pakistanis in that roads commercial value. Their $60 billion loan to build the road is due and Pakistanis these days borrow to pay interest on that loan. That is the most stupid situation of Pakistani creation.
The Pakistanis only recently upgraded their defence budget by 6% for this year. When you are bankrupt then the Army is also asked to slim down; but not in Pakistan. There the Army is fighting a virtual war which they cannot win with India. But their local propaganda against India is so strong that nobody dare to slim the Army down.
If ever Pakistan starts a 1965 or 1971 or 1999 war, they are most likely to loose big, but also loose so badly that Pakistan may loose its identity completely. That is their choice…… Kashmir or Pakistani bankruptcy.
India is $3 trillion economy as opposed to less than $350 billion Pakistani economy. It has $600 billion foreign reserves as opposed to $10 billion for Pakistan. Pakistan cannot match except western encouraged media propaganda gives a false impression.
India can outspend Pakistan in any field including army, navy or airforce. It has already done so in last 8 years. Now Indian defence forces are more muscular than anytime before, hence Pakistan is afraid of undertaking any Mumbai or Kashmir type terror acts. As of now, they have resorted to pistol type civilian shooting in Kashmir. Any big action sponsored by them could expect a big Indian retaliation which Pakistanis may not be able to control.
Any Western free aid is out of question. They have to refine their ways of conducting themselves locally, in the neighbourhood and internationally. Duplicity in relations is unwelcome. Although Pakistanis have perfected the art of duplicity, it is not working between US, China and Russia this time.
Very soon the over confident Pakistani Army will give up. Bankruptcy will be the main reasons. Their military budget of $30 billion ($10 billion official and $20 billion hidden in other Pakistani ministries and departments) will have to be reduced not by little but by half. Then only Pakistan will make any headway. That $60 billion Chinese CPEC road network will have to be dumped. Chinese loan repayment at the cost of inter-relations will have to be denied under one excuse or other. Then only Pakistanis will be back on path of progress.
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China
Chinese would have captured all areas they claim including Tawang, Chumbi Valley and Damchok etc., in 2021 if they were capable of doing that. Their paid propaganda in Indian media and defence websites do not capture anything. It is the desk jockey boys who frequent these media outlets and websites who get convinced about the invincibility of Chinese. Some of them may be paid.
‘’’When 50,000 Indian troops are facing equal number of Chinese troops, then there is no chance that Chinese would advance an inch forward. Now Indian policy to deal with Chinese has changed. India will capture Chinese occupied territory if ever China advances. Remember the Kailash Heights capture by india a year and half back. Chinese troops had no recourse but to vacate Pangong Lake area. Same thing could happen to Gogra and Hot Spring area. If they move, then Indian troops will cut off the road which passes near its eye sight post and deny access to their Galwan River Valley positions.
Chumbi Valley is a bad job to the Chinese. India is in strong position there. Chinese are in the valley and Indian troops command the heights. No invading army could cross over into Indian held heights without being mauled. Other reason for them to cross over is to surrender to the Indian troops who would be pounding Chinese positions with huge artillery fire.
Tawang area is hostile to China. People there hate Chinese in Tibet. Indian road and tunnel has reached Tawang for more and better reinforcements. This time, if they cross ThagLa Ridge then it will be their Waterloo. Hence they will threaten and never dare to cross the ThagLa Ridge. They value their phoney prestige and Chinese troops surrender will kill it.
Chinese know all that but Indians who listen to Chinese propaganda do not. They are fighting a psychological warfare to convince India that they should become Chinese patsy. As india refuses, they update their propaganda more and more.
‘’’When 50,000 Indian troops are facing equal number of Chinese troops, then there is no chance that Chinese would advance an inch forward. Now Indian policy to deal with Chinese has changed. India will capture Chinese occupied territory if ever China advances. Remember the Kailash Heights capture by india a year and half back. Chinese troops had no recourse but to vacate Pangong Lake area. Same thing could happen to Gogra and Hot Spring area. If they move, then Indian troops will cut off the road which passes near its eye sight post and deny access to their Galwan River Valley positions.
Chumbi Valley is a bad job to the Chinese. India is in strong position there. Chinese are in the valley and Indian troops command the heights. No invading army could cross over into Indian held heights without being mauled. Other reason for them to cross over is to surrender to the Indian troops who would be pounding Chinese positions with huge artillery fire.
Tawang area is hostile to China. People there hate Chinese in Tibet. Indian road and tunnel has reached Tawang for more and better reinforcements. This time, if they cross ThagLa Ridge then it will be their Waterloo. Hence they will threaten and never dare to cross the ThagLa Ridge. They value their phoney prestige and Chinese troops surrender will kill it.
Chinese know all that but Indians who listen to Chinese propaganda do not. They are fighting a psychological warfare to convince India that they should become Chinese patsy. As india refuses, they update their propaganda more and more.
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Bangladesh
Unfortunate for Bangladesh that it is located at lower geographical altitude hence floods coming from Gangs, Brahmaputra although impact india but almost sink Bangladesh. It has happened many times before.
In spite of that, economically they are better off Pakistan and almost near or equal to India. External aid, settling unwanted quarrels with India, falling Chinese textile exports and aggressively seeking external textile market has made Bangladesh a good place to do business. There is chance that three out five cheap textile clothings you buy in the west including US are made in Bangladesh. The government their also have discouraged unnecessary Muslim propaganda and have kept these extremists under control. These are good reasons to make progress. Unfortunately their geography does not help. It is their major drawback.
In spite of that, economically they are better off Pakistan and almost near or equal to India. External aid, settling unwanted quarrels with India, falling Chinese textile exports and aggressively seeking external textile market has made Bangladesh a good place to do business. There is chance that three out five cheap textile clothings you buy in the west including US are made in Bangladesh. The government their also have discouraged unnecessary Muslim propaganda and have kept these extremists under control. These are good reasons to make progress. Unfortunately their geography does not help. It is their major drawback.
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