QUAD Summit on May 24, 2022

 QUAD Summit on May 24, 2022

President Biden is coming to Japan, along with Narender Modi and the Australian Prime Minister. The supposed meeting is to move the QUAD agenda forward to address the upcoming Chinese threat. It is  war time in Europe now and US is heavily involved in this war, still he is coming to Japan to push ahead the QUAD agenda.

We know that, none of the above four have meeting of mind on the current issues still they are sitting down with Japanese Prime Minister as host. Of all the issues, possible Chinese military moves on Taiwan is prime on their mind. There are other objectives, or other things that need to be dealt with.

US Objectives

China's military movement on Taiwan scares the US. Despite being a military superpower, they are unable to fight on two fronts in Europe and Asia. Therefore, they would like to upload the task of the fight against China to India, Japan and Australia. They already have measures in place to establish a nuclear alliance with Austalia (AUKUS). To challenge China in the China Sea, Indian, Australian and American navies combined can overcome all Chinese movements. Also, Chinese are incapable of crossing Himalayas to stage a 1962 type military operation, hence the challenge is to be vigilant and well equipped to counter all Chinese moves both at land and at sea.

President Biden's other goal is to continue to convince India to support the United States in their European war... Tough luck. India's low-cost oil purchases from Russia also need to be cut. Again Tough luck unless US exports oil to India at the same price as purchases from Russia. Other smaller issues with Russian spare parts can be addressed if the US provides technical assistance to manufacture them in India. India promises not to purchase additional military systems.

Australia

There have always been questions about eight nuclear submarines for Australia. Now we know that the Chinese are making an effort to reach Australia’s backyard. They have leased or purchased one or two islands to set up military bases in the Solomon Island chain. That is too close to Australia. While the Chinese are in no position to threaten Australia at 3,000 miles, their presence is threatening. That is the whole purpose of Chinese military buildup i.e. threaten but not fight. 

Australia has also indicated their solidarity with Taiwan, which is difficult for Chinese to handle, hence they are not able to see eye to eye with Australia.

India

Chinese main opponent in Asia is India. If it is properly supported by commercial ties with the United States and Europe, then India can push back China very well. The Chinese Himalayan invasion is out of the question, but India can block Chinese oil supplies from the Middle East, and block trade with Africa and Europe. All India needs are more capable seagoing vessels, missiles and surveillance hardware. In addition, India needs trade to earn money enough to match Chinese military buildup. That is what Modi will bring up for discussion during the QUAD meet.

A good thing which could come off the QUAD, is to prevent Pakistani intervention during any Sino-Indian confrontation. That support, the QUAD could provide with ease.

Japan

Japan, a rich country with a pacifist constitution, is incapable of constructing a military machine in the service of its interests. The Chinese know it hence is belligerent towards Japan. Once there is constitutional reform, the Japanese can afford to spend three times more on defense than they currently do. These will be points of discussion during the QUAD meet.

All the above issues and many more cannot be resolved in one QUAD meet. But the seriousness of the leaders to address these questions in the next 5-7 years will be a good beginning. 


To sum up, QUAD is not an Asian NATO, but an understanding of self-help.

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