India and the Ukrainian War

 India and the Ukrainian War 


Day 17 of the Russian Invasion

Hopefully the war in Ukraine will be over soon. Russia has achieved some of its goals, but has lost its prestige and a lot of war equipment on the question of poor quality. Right now, it is a matter of prestige for Russia and it will not back off; it will finish the job, sanctions or no sanctions.

The whole world, both in the US/NATO camp and in the Russian camp, has been very divided. The neutralists are under huge pressure to pick the US side, as they say that a little lamb has been beaten by big bad wolf. To a certain degree, the analogy is right. There is no merit to the Russian invasion, even though the Ukrainians were wrong. They were caught up in their anti-Russian sentiments and invited NATO and the United States to move to Ukraine. Ukraine with the border with Russia was on the point of making this fateful bad decision, but Russia struck first. NATO presence on the Russian border has been eliminated as the question. 

Recall the Cuban crisis of 1962. That was the opposite of the current situation in Ukraine. In that the Russians/Soviets approached the American border and started an almost quasi-nuclear war. The Soviets gave up and the crisis ended. The same fate awaits the Ukrainian crisis in a different way. The Americans, although overjoyed that body bags are not coming to US, but going to Russia, will have to relent on their desire to expand NATO/US influence right up to the Russian border. The Ukrainian President is making that type of noises. Now they do not want to apply to join NATO, but there is no guarantee for the future. This means that the war will continue until the entire Ukraine is destroyed. 

Had the US very cleverly not asked Ukraine to seek NATO membership, there would be no shooting war. Ultimately, in the court of public opinion, the U.S. is responsible for instigating the war, and the Russians are responsible for the invasion. Since the shooting is being done by the Russians, they have to bear the brunt of the blame.

India was inadvertently caught in a conundrum. We need US for economic progress and also cannot replace Russian military hardware in a jiffy, although some of the legacy items, although fully operational hence as per the agreements, spare parts & upgrades are to be sourced from the Original Equipment Manufacturer only. As a result, India is sitting on the fence without support to either side.

The U.S. has put enormous political pressure on India to dump $100 billion of military equipment in service since 1980 and replace it with western equipment. This is easier said than done, especially when Pakistan & China in the neighbourhood are planning a major operation to dismember India. Furthermore, the United States did not discount prices for its equipment at any time. In fact, US prices are triple what you can buy from the Russians. 

But India also needs ongoing commercial support from the United States. With three quarters of a billion of cash reserves in dollar account and five hundred thousands of Indians directly involved in software service export, and $300 billion in merchandise exports to the Western markets, it is just not practical to turn our backs on American advice, hence the dilemma. 

To keep China and Pakistan out of India’s back; India is actively supporting QUAD. If China and Pakistan join forces and attack India, it is QUAD or the Americans who will come to the rescue. This explains why we should listen to the United States. 

Consequently, India wishes to end the war in Ukraine. Who cares, who carries the day; India wants India’s interests to be protected.

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