Two Front War in India

 Two Front War in India


Hitler fought a two front war and lost it. There are many other examples of two front war losses. It is highly unusual to have a war on two fronts and emerge victorious. India has two front war scenarios or at least the threat of it. Over the last five years, knowing that this type of war is possible, India started building allies and alliances, but there were promises, but not a final alliance. 


When the US and Briton moved their navies in 1971 against India to prevent the Indian quick victory in Bangladesh, it was the Soviet fleet both in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea which intervened and forced both US & British fleets away. The then Soviet Union provided a good account of an ally, after India and Soviets initialed the Indo-Soviet 20 years security pact in 1971.


Things are different now than they were in 1971. Although the Chinese at the behest of President Nixon in 1971 played a bit of a dubious role, but overall they stayed on the sidelines. Now the Chinese are on the Pakistani side. They have lent them tons of money and are testing their third rate military hardware in Pakistani hands (missiles, Jf-17, J-10C, Submarines, Frigates, tube artillery & other hardware). It is possible that for certain questionable Pakistani activities, clouds of war could gather over South Asia again. Now, the script is that the Chinese will be 100 percent on the Pakistan side. 


If the situation is reversed and the Chinese militarily attack India, then the Pakistanis will also be on the Chinese side and move their military to Kashmir to seize it. It is this scenario which sends shivers through the Indian establishment. India will have difficulty defending itself from both. The best thing India could do is to fight, defensive battles to contain the aggressions.


Under this scenario, India has signed three communication agreements with the US. Also the QUAD is a major pact/alliance which India would like to have. The QUAD can contain both the Pakistani and the Chinese ambitions with no regrets. Pakistanis could be hard pressed not to listen to US. Elsewhere, Chinese is already listening to the US by not invading Taiwan.


The Himalayas are a major advantage in stopping any wide-ranging Chinese invasion. The main advantage is that a full-scale war in winter 6 months is impossible. In that period, the Pakistanis will be hard pressed to start a losing war with India.


A summer war scenario is something where India needs allies. US falls in that category very well. Somehow US displeasure with India is a bit obtuse. US objection to the purchase of S-400 is a lot more political than a military procurement issue. US did not have a comparable hardware for India to buy.


Hence the alliance building for two front threat is still progressing, but not final yet.

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