Various Papers published in India Defence Forum

 Published in India Defence Forum :-    May 2, 2021

 

Why is the United States afraid of the Chinese?

Biden presidency is bad for Russia, but US is afraid of China, hence unable to confront it on the issue of domination, China has achieved in North and South China Sea and its uncalled for effort to dominate Himalayas.

For me the writer an old hand in international diplomacy, it is clear that the relations of the United States and China are dominated by the profits and the numbers of the Wall Street. The US is so dependent on profits and the Wall Street that all principles of democracy, human rights and freedom are put aside. Now all kinds of rhetoric are being belched out from Washington, both from official and unofficial sources to let China know of its displeasure but nothing concrete has been done. This means that actions do not correspond to words.

The United States is unlikely to win here. The winner is the Chinese. They have become a global powerhouse in equal status with the United States and why not. China exports $400 billion in consumer goods to the U.S. and close to the same amount to Europe. As a result, they can slowly persuade everyone to act in China's favor. This is what's going on. They have all kinds of laws to confront Russia or dissuade others to do business with Russia, but not for China. While the Chinese are well known as currency manipulators, they are making bad products and threatening the United States to pull out of all the seas and countries that the United States has dominated. Now the Chinese wish to dominate.

What a reversal of role in just 20 years. Now US is a weaker power in the China seas. All small nations around the seas are under threat to tow the Chinese line or otherwise.

How did this happen?

The United States, under the Clinton Democrat, encouraged China to remove all manufacturing from the United States and relocate it to China with lower costs but poor quality. They even provided about one trillion dollars in FDI and technology to set up cheap manufacturing in China over a 15-year period from 1997 to 2012. Today, China dominates the U.S. and European consumer goods market, and why not. They have nothing left to manufacture at home. Even President Trump's import tariffs on $200 billion in consumer goods have done nothing to deter China.

Hence, where are we today? ....... We are moving into a China dominated world and US the second ratepower with Aircraft Carriers to threaten little guys, but stay clear of China Conflict on any issue........ Shame on US for allowing this to happen.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Published in India Defence Forum:-        March 31, 2021

 

Supply Chain Politics between the U.S and China.

The fact that diplomats from the U.S. and China met in Alaska recently, as has been pointed out, was full of acrimony and was a nonstarter. Later, President Biden in his first press conference of his presidency declared that during his watch, nobody is going to surpass US economically, militarily, technologically or in any other way. He warned both Russia and China, but more specifically China that they are better advised not think of outsmarting US in any way. It is the Chinese who over the past three years have been vocal about their economic prowess and their military might. Their economic prowess lies in the cash flow generated by exports to the US and Europe.

Initially, Chinese exports were motivated by the western desire to transfer the smokestack industry to underdeveloped China. There were other political and international considerations also but the West preferred China. They provided the money (about a trillion dollars of FDI) and the technology and the Chinese provided the labor and the feedstock. A huge array of “Chinese-made” consumer goods have emerged in the US and Europe. From 1998, under Presidents Clinton/Bush/Obama, they also opened their markets for Chinese products without any quota or import duty. These goods were cheap compared to locally made hence the public got hooked to these. The US & China trade deficit in 2017 amounted to about $400 billion per year with Chinese importing next to nothing but exporting only. That surplus cash went into building their infrastructure and military. With that prosperity they began to pick up fights in their neighborhood. They claimed the dormant contentious islands near Japan and then spoke of re - conquering Taiwan. Later they gave notice to Philippines, Vietnam, and all nations in South China Sea that they have a historic but dubious claim to the islands far away from China coast. To support their claim, they built a few islands in the sea and posted their navy as well as bombers to intimidate the little nations. Which is why the United States coming into the picture. Not only that, the Chinese picked up a fight with India in the Himalayas, first in 2018 then in 2020.

In the meantime, the Chinese began bidding for intermediate products in the supply chain for US as well as Europe at much cheaper rates. This drove the existing suppliers out of business and established Chinese as the sole suppliers. In 2017-18, they accounted for approximately 30 per cent of the supply chain. This is bad news, which should have been noticed early on, but western governments were asleep. The Wall Street knew about it and encouraged it as it generated higher profits and sent the numbers zooming up. This enormous trade surplus for China continued to grow. Now they were draining western money for cheap but poor-quality products.

The 2016 US Presidential elections brought a conservative President Trump to the top. He and his top trade advisors wished to deal with the Chinese trade surplus sooner than later. It imposed duties on $400 billion of Chinese merchandise arriving in the U.S. - in two phases. When he was during dealing with China, political complications at home for him (impeachment) raised its head. The impeachment fell through, but it consumed presidential attention away from China and trade matters. This turmoil was a Chinese gain. They were overjoyed. Then the Covid pandemic interfered in 2020 but demand for cheap Chinese products never abated.

The new President Joe Biden, contrary to expectations, is restarting to deal with Chinese belligerence again. Some indications of the diplomatic meet in Alaska available did not bid good for the Chinese. His pronouncements in first press conference are a warning and if carried out, then Chinese trade heyday are over and Chinese military prowess will be checked.

Where are we, two months after Joe Biden inaugurated:

1. The trade surplus in Chinese favor is still growing.

2. To put an end to Chinese intimidation, a military alliance called QUAD on NATO lines is in progress.
Trade could only be dealt with if multiple sources of consumer products are created to kill the Chinese monopoly. It is a five-year project with India, Vietnam and Bangladesh that are about to supply consumer products and become important suppliers of the supply chain.

Militarily, the Chinese have too much confidence. Their power is limited with copied and reverse engineered technology. They already suffered a setback in the Himalayas when India rose and told them to get lost. Vietnam and the Philippines all did the same. To re-assure, the US revamped a decade old the idea of four countries - Japan, Australia, India and US (QUAD) pull together their naval and other military resources and confront China. The idea is to force China to leave the North and South China Sea and return to its coasts. It is a novel idea. Its success is mainly based on resources that the US and Japan could put forward. The next three years, with other nations becoming consumers and intermediate goods suppliers, will determine the outcome. That will reduce Chinese cash intake. These steps can make a difference.

Published in India Defence Forum:-    Jan 23, 2021

 

India – US Relations in last Three years

India -US could not hit out together even culturally and naturally we are close to each other, a lot closerthan either Chinese were or will be and Pakistanis whose fundamental organization wish death & destruction except who is not Muslim. Then why we seem to be coming closer as in last four years then drift apart before we close close enough. US has undergone a dramatic shift in its politics with a lifetime leftist personality becoming the President. If Indian came closer during right wing Trump presidency, then with Joe Biden as the new person in charge either the relationship will be frozen at current state or begin drift apart.

US ambassador to India Ken Juster let the cat out of bag. If Indian does not relent to US demands of minor trade issues and continue to buy the S-400 anti missile system from Russia then he said take for guaranteed, India will get sanctioned and future relationship is in Jeopardy. ...... Think again. The missile system in question is not much of the issue, it is the denial of US military planes to fly over India is denied. They don’t care about Chinese and Pakistani planes and missiles shot down; they care about their own planes being shot down. Moreover $5 billion in Russian pocket is bothering them US too much. Moreover, US does not have a comparable product. One small component to tie several Russian, Indian system into one one and co-ordinate is being purchased from US for about $1 billion.

Trade is least of the issues. Ambassador Ken Juster is listing an issue for future talks. Trump had made trade as main issue of his presidency. He failed miserably with China, Canada and Mexico. He could not alter the trade equilibrium there. A few very minor changes were made with trade deal with Canada/Mexico. With China he put 10% to 20% import duty on $300 billion of Chinese imports, which is not worth a lot. It did not force Chinese to import more of US grain. Rather whatever consumer bought earlier were more expensive hence everyday consumer was the looser. He or she had to pay more from his tax paid income. Hence the whole trade issue with China is a failure. Had he ordered cut back in imports from China, told the Wall Street to invest less in China and worked hard to develop alternative supply routes outside of China, in three years the situation would be different. The great China would have been tamed.

India has hardly any trade issues with US. If you wish to pick up a fight, then you list high import duty on American made motorcycles etc. In a single hand shake all these trade issues will disappear. But if you want lower import duty on motorcycle then you would have to remove all restrictions on H1 Visa etc. Hence no trade deal could be reached. This will end up in a fiasco, same way as the China import duties are turning into a fiasco. But to keep the issue burning, US will keep harping on trade deal.

So where do we go from here with a less sympathetic new President Of US. India is lead by a very competent Prime Minister. He does not take a second place to none. If US orders Sanctions, India can take US name out from import deal of $20 billion MMRTCA fighter import program. US f-16 and f-18 are top contenders for this deal. Now think who is a bigger looser, the US companies who would have supplied the planes or sanctioned items or persons in India who would not be allowed entry into US. Remember, the current Indian leadership is not Anglophilic. They were born and bread in India. They can forego visiting US. Looser in US.

In addition that major QUAD initiative is on hold in India waiting for new US president to spell out his policy. If is rude and rough, then QUAD will not get off the ground. India is the fourth leg of this program. With Indian reluctance, containment of China in South and North China Sea will fall apart. Now think who is a bigger looser. It is definitely US.

Hence before Ambassador ken Juster opens his mouth too wide, consider all the i,-locations. India is not a pushover. China just learnt last year and Pakistan has been learning for the last 20 years after Kargildefeat.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Published in India Defence Forum:-      January 21, 2021

 

The New US Administration under President Joe Biden

 

We are back to Obama Administration with Joe Biden as president now. Most of his men are ex Obamaites. Does America have to recreate not so smart Administration of the bygone era. Yes, Obama smiled a lot which convinced the people that everything is OK. Not true.........

China captured all the South China Sea, hence shipping and security of that region is in doubt. The Chinese overgrew in military might during Obama Administration and America kept importing stuff from China, filling up their pockets. That money went straight into their military and Obama and his men kept watching.

Russia was threatened with war if they stepped one step further in Ukraine. As a matter of fact, neutralistic Eastern Europe closer to Russia is good for everybody. it is a buffer for advanced Western Europe, but Obama could not control his advisors not work to grab Ukraine into its own fold. Now there is an unending war with no results.

And many more issues like that in Iraq and Pakistan. The latter could be told to end terrorism or else. All he is got to do is to stop the spare parts. China cannot supply the spares the Pakistanis need.

Now the new Obama administration under the name of Biden is bad news to the world, India included. This middle of road Joe Biden Administration with all Obama’s ex advisors in the bad news, no matter where you look.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Published in India Defence Forum:-       Nov 25, 2020

 

Does Joe Biden has Magic Band, which will Fix everything in America

Joe Biden is the president-elect of the United States, no matter how much Donald Trump speaks of illegality during elections. He himself contributed to his loss during the Great Pandemic. It is the Covid-19 pandemic, which did a job on him. Now he should hand over the job with grace and retire.

Joe Biden's new administration has a tremendous task before it. First of all, it must cure America of the Conservative-Liberal divide. Second, proceed speedily on work on progress in earnest to cure America of the serious pandemic, which has killed more people and sickened more people in America and the rest of the world. If he has a magic wand, then now is the time to wave it. He may lose all his support in the blink of an eye if very little is done other than election promises. Third, China's obtuse behavior, with huge amounts of American money in their pockets, intimidate countries on the outskirts of the South and North China Sea. These three seriously undertaken tasks will give greater confidence to the Biden government.

The healing America of its divide with the emergence of truly leftist organizations (I Cannot Breath) is a long-range process. The 80 to 90% white population is just not ready to hand over their money and power to the Black America which is roughly 10% only. This process is well in progress with a black president, a bunch of black media person and black politicians all over America when in 1965 there were none. It was pretty-well accelerated when black President Obama took power. An acceleration of this process is an invitation to civil conflict.

Remedy to the current pandemic, which has been the primary reason for people not voting for Donald Trump is almost here. The corporate world played partisan by delaying the announcement of the vaccine success by two days and waited after the elections. Even success is not so great that I will explain it later. However, it allowed Joe Biden to take full advantage of the pandemic concerns to get a vote.

Now we have a couple of vaccines that are going to help Joe Biden. One of them (Pfizer) can be difficult to dispense quickly due to its -70-degree temperature requirement. You need big, expensive infrastructure. It's not that bad for the Moderna vaccine because it requires -20 degrees, which is easier to create. These two vaccine production supplies have been cornered by US hence the rest of the world has to wait for six months or more. There is a third and more promising vaccine by AstraZeneca and Oxford also in the later stages of testing and confirmatory. It requires regular refrigeration. It is, if everything is well to be produced in large quantities in India and in some other countries. That is very likely to be used by the rest of the world. Other countries like Russia, China and India are in the final stages of their own vaccine development.

It is the price of the vaccine delivered to everyone that is significant. The Pfizer and the Moderna are the most expensive which, unless subsidised, will be out of reach of the rest of the masses in the world. AstraZeneca can be within the price range, which middle-income countries could afford. Developed locally in India and China will be good for their own countries as they are in the price bracket they can afford.

To accomplish other economic, political, and strategic tasks, we need to overcome the pandemic syndrome with a cure.

This is the policy aspect that would determine the outcome of Joe Biden's presidency. In Asia and East Asia the most important question is the obtuse behaviour of China. It is the weak and uneven policies of Obama/Clinton and the Extraordinary War Syndrome during the Bush era (Jr) that the Chinese have had the signal to build a $3 trillion pool in foreign reserves and expand their armed forces to an unprecedented level. They were building an army rivalling the United States, although the quality is much lower. With the military power at their disposal, the Chinese captured the whole South China Sea, and banned navigation unless they allowed it. It happened when Obama was in the driver's seat. It is bad for the Chinese to question the ships in the region where they are going and what the goal is. The whole of seaboard from Japan to Malaysia/Singapore has been put in jeopardy in the long run. Their navy, which is very nascent and inexperienced has not exerted any pressure on Indian Ocean but it is a foregone conclusion. Only two powers in the world can tell China to go and get lost, namely the United States in the South China Sea and India with other powers in the Indian Ocean. The latter is working hard to create an alliance (QUAD). To neutralize the Indian effort, China began to exert military pressure on India in the Himalayas. Hardly did they know that India has been anticipating that for some time, hence built upmountain fighting defenses that after initial success scared the Chinese to stand still. This was a poor military operation for the Chinese nearly as close to defeat as possible. After China's defeat in Vietnam in 1979, that will be the second military setback.

Incomes Joe Biden. He has been second guessing Donald Trump in everything. Where as Trump had instituted a strategy to counter China and try to limit imports from them by instituting import duties also bring in a major American naval fleet to Singapore or somewhere near to challenge China, we do not know what Joe Biden will do. He hired all the bureaucrats of the Clinton-Obama era to set his policy. His choice of Secretary of State and National Security Advisor of Clinton/Obama era does not inspire confidence. Their utterances so far are middle of the road. Asia, Europe, and China are fully tuned into their current utterances, hence waiting for something specific. They may sabotage QUAD or sabotage locating part of the American naval fleet to Singapore.

Joe Biden did not comment on Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran, and the rest of the Middle East. In my view, very positive policies have never stopped the wars that are going on there.

Hence we are in a limbo. It is too early to know whether Joe Biden and his men will be as tough as Donald Trump or is he going to sweet talk unscrupulous men now ruling China to expand more and start new wars everywhere. Or will he be tough on China, Pakistan, Iran, Turkey, Syria, etc. and tell them to behave or else.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Published in India Defence Forum: -       May 29, 2020

 

Parallel of Minneapolis there were Delhi riots

Where are the Western media reporters, especially the Washington Post and New York Times and a host of British reporters who during Delhi riots in February were making up stories about Delhi riots. They filed reports unworthy of them and their own employers. They should all be now in Minneapolis filing similar riot reports of looting, burning, etc. These riots are no different from Delhi riots except the Afro American community is being blamed. Much of the reporting is about how bad one community is to set the police station on fire, looted shops and basically searching for targets.

It is three days of rioting here The national guards (the Army) had to be called. They were called when the police could not handle the situation. Even they were unable to fully handle, hence the dead person’s family had to be brought, in front of TV to ask for calm. What calm...... the offending policeman has not been charged with murder.

Situation, very much close to this happened in Delhi. The rioters, who were mostly from one community were running amuck while murdering a security man stabbing him with a blunt knife 30 times in a politician's house and then dumped his body in a drain. They had collected a truckload of bricks for use on police. It is only when the majority community became aware that the situation is out of control and the local politicians are mishandling the situation, they retaliated with force and the Army was called. Only then the riots stopped.

That became an issue with the western media. Their exuberance was visible from the reports they filed. Many of these reports were written by the neighboring country and then handed over to the western reporters. They filed those incendiary reports as is. They, it seems we're having fun because President Trump was visiting India and some reporters and politicians wished to show their displeasure on his visit.

My point here is that riots are riots, whether these happen in Minneapolis or previously under same circumstances in California these must be dealt with strongly. Politicians for votes play games and support one or the other community. There is no room to express exuberance as shown by the western reporters in Delhi. If they feel the same way, then they should be in Minneapolis, reporting in the same manner as they reported from Delhi. Anything less will be dishonesty. But they will not report. They will paper over all the incendiary details.

In my opinion that is journalistic dishonesty.

 

 

Published in India Defence Forum: -       Nov 9, 2014

 

That crooked lady in Washington


Robyn Rafael or Robin and her anti Indian career began in Bush (senior) administration. The Pressler amendment of 1990 had prohibited any contact and aid to Pakistan other than regular diplomatic niceties and aid already in the pipeline destined for so called Afghan refugees. The Pressler amendment became necessary when it became clear that Pakistan has a very large nuclear bomb project. Pakis had stolen some American know how and other from URENCO in Europe. The Pressler amendment was the new low in Pak -US relations from 1990 to 95.

Pakistani diplomats were at pain to explain why they were developing nuclear bomb. They privately told US that It was completely India centric and root cause of their nuclear bomb development was Kashmir issue.

Enter Clinton Administration. As a CIA operative in New Delhi, she had some knowledge of Indian point of view, which she did not like and she had knowledge of Pakistani mindset thru her husband who was till 1988, was ambassdor to Pakistan, but divorced.

Robin also knew President Clinton from her Oxford days and Hillary thru her social contacts. The die was cast to get Robin to make suggestions to solve the Kashmir dispute during first Clinton Administration (1992-96). If that was to happen then Pakistan could be asked to completely shutdown its nuclear bomb. To Clintons, who did not know where New Delhi is, and wished to butt into a fifty-year-old dispute this was heavens sent opportunity, which also included Robin with her expertise of sort. He persuaded Warren Christopher to accept Robin to the newly created post of Assistant Secretary of South Asian affairs.

First task of Robin was to annul and amend Pressler amendment to allow aid to Pakistan. Robin aided by Dr. Maleeha Lodi (Paki Ambassador in Washington) started to make noises about Kashmir being disputed territory and US not recognizing its instrument of accession to India. That alerted India and it began its own tactic to take this issue out of US consideration especially when US top priority was to restore aid to Pakistan and not to butt into Kashmir issue. Second US with Robin at front and centre if managed to declare Kashmir as disputed territory then US could ask Pakistan to shutdown its nuclear bomb making. But by now US realized that Pakistani bomb is too far ahead and shutting it down is of no avail. Hence effort was afoot to freeze it at that level with hope that economic & military aid and US help to internationalize the Kashmir issue would sway Pakistan into freezing it. None of these mechanizations worked.

Still Robin managed to persuade Congress to restore aid to Pakistan. A new "Brown" amendment at the Congress restored some aid and contact with Pakistani military in 1994/95. Thankful Pakistan spread a red carpet to Robin. India could do nothing to stop this machination of Robin as well as rest of US administration. It is only when Vajpayee NDA government got elected that decision was taken to mend all ties with US, that Robin found going tough. She either was elbowed out or was not invited into Talbott/Jaswant discussions. Later, Kenya & Tanzania bombing made Clinton mad in 1998/99 and a new low in US - Pak relations resulted. India thumbed at both by saying - "I told you so".

Heavens aided Pakistan that 9/11 happened. Although there was no direct Pakistani advice in planning this attack, but all the perpetrators hid in Pakistan, aided by some Jihadi officers in the Pakistani army. Also Pakistan threw its lot behind US, although the public opinion at home did not like it.

Now US needed Pakistan more, as it had to ferry supplies to Afghanistan. Also, Pakistani ISI provided intelligence in locating dome of the key perpetrators except OSMA BIN LADEN. Pakistan demanded ransom for its effort.

A new Kerry -Lugar amendment was drafted to negate Pressler as well as Brown amendments during Bush (jr) Administration. It not only added more to the aid Package to Pakistan, but it added little more leeway for future considerations. Look who was the author of this amendment and endorsement of a much higher aid package. It was Robin Rafael. Later she got herself named as Pakistan aid package Advisor. In last six years the aid package tripled to $1.5 billion and thankful Pakistan was extending favours upon favours to this crooked lady.

Although Kashmir issue was out of her remit at the State Department but Robin kept on working on Pakistani agenda since year 2000. On the way she called herself as expert on South Asia affairs, although she had exclusively become Pakistani informer of sorts.

At what time in her career, she became a Pakistani informer only the courts will determine. But her career of a senior diplomat is over. She will be despised as a diplomat in Washington.

It is quite possible that CIA may jump in to save her from jail, after all she was a CIA agent, and CIA always help its people in trouble. But Indian point of view, it is a good riddance.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Published in India Defence Forum: -         May 24, 2014

Re: Known unknowns about Modi are catalysts for a reset Indo US relations

US has demonized Modi first. Neither Katrina Lantos nor her father are students of history. They have not learnt anything from their own. US killed 100,000 civilians under the guise of fighting the terrorists in Afghanistan. They went their to find one master mind, but instead ended up killing 100,000 Afghans who were dirt poor and no reason to fight the monster US. Concurrently 300,000 Iraqis are dead because US went to fight on behalf of a client Kuwait. None of these people would be dead, had Ms Lantos had looked at its own country's dealings with gun culture. All the dead 100,000 Afghans would be alive, had US had exerted enough military pressure on double crossing Pakistan. They had been behind Osama Bin Laden being kept alive in a Pakistan for their own benefit.

Ms Latos being human rights provocateur in the name of protecting the week has to question it's own government first of all these deaths in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Do not believe any none sense that Ms Lantos was acting of her own and discovering human rights violations all over the world including violations by his own home country. She was set up by the US State Department's Human Rights watch group, which is highly political group and sent against people they do not like. When Ms Lantos got her orders, it was Hillary Clinton in charge and Iraq and Afghan wars were at full swing. Hillary wished to divert attention from US own human rights violations of fighting two illegal wars, hence turned-on Modi in India.

As I told, US officials have very poor knowledge of people elsewhere and things happening. Provocation for riots in Gujrat was burning of a train by Muslim activists where 80 Hindus were burnt alive. Something was going to happen. Just as something was going to happen when one black citizen of America was beaten up by white cops in California. The whole black community rose with arms up for a fight. Hindus could not let the culprit’s escape.

US has to rationalize its own thinking first. They wished to demonize Modi. They found half a dozen left leaning people of Indian origin in US who have rarely visited that country again and with the help of Congress Party in India, who was afraid that one day this super star from Gujarat will eclipse their dynastic rule manufactured evidence and provided that to the Human Rights group in US. the US State Department believed all that. That is why I tell US diplomatic bureaucracy is very poorly qualified.

If I were Modi, I will mind all this. I will not relent until US provides an apology. Until then there is no need to shake hand with Obama or Kerry or Hillary or Nancy in US. They can come to India, if they wished.

 

Published in India Defence Forum: - March 26, 2014

 

US Misbehaviour with Indian Diplomats in US

 

US Embassy in India has found itself on the wrong foot. It has committed the same tax evasion, underpayment to employee fraud, incorrect representation on documents crimes as an Indian Diplomat has been charged. Usually, diplomats are not arrested but expelled. This was unusual case which will reverberate for years in the diplomatic circle. There are three principal actors of this episode

1. Preet Bharara, the over enthusiastic New York Public Prosecutor, who looks for high profile cases for publicity. He got Two Wall Streeters but that did not get him enough publicity by name. Other little cases drug peddlers and mob chasing had not brought him enough publicity by name. He made this case of Indian diplomat’s arrest to get a name recognition. His actions prior to him ordering arrests of the diplomat were nothing short of being a crook. He ordered air lifting of two Indian Citizens to persuade the victim to testify in court against the diplomat. That is nothing short of illegal. He knew at that that time that his acts were illegal but continued. He knew that Indian courts for almost kidnapping of two Indian nationals can do no harm, hence he continued with it. He deliberately sent the US Marshall to arrest the diplomat in public and then do cavity search which is usually reserved for drug peddlers. India objected to the fullest and there was public outcry. That is what he wanted. He got name publicity and got himself into the Time cover. Later he had to bury his head in sand because he lost the case in a superior court. But he continued and refiled the case. He will loose again.

He is publicity hungry SOB, to get name publicity by inflicting pain. I hope somebody finds some minor infraction in his life in forms he filled from high school till today and then charge him. Best of all do a cavity search.

2. Nancy Powell, the not do smart US ambassador to India has been pain in the butt. She is not diplomat/politician who are appointed to this high post but a career diplomat of the US State Department. She has been trained under the COLD Warriors in the State Department and had her laurels as tough-minded civil servant. She got her job as ambassador to India by a fluke and seniority. Usually, a politically savvy and diplomatically smart politician gets this job. Sending a tough-minded civil servant was totally unusual. Trouble started right away as she arrived in Delhi. The Nuclear Deal and the INDO- US Strategic Dialogue was going nowhere ever since she arrived. Those BUSH-ManMohan Singh deals were allowed to wither away on one pretext or other. India was reacting strongly to US acceptance of major role for Pakistan after US withdrawal from Afghanistan. India had spent a billion dollar and lost countless lives in Afghanistan rebuilding that it could not let go. That Nancy Powell thought, India should accept US dictate. It was her who had a sort of discouraging attitude on investment in India in a big way,which Republicans of Bush era were just about ready to unleash. That INDO-US dialogue became mostly hot air.

She also offered an encouraging attitude towards a State Department Security officer, when he consulted with her about a maid, who previously worked in US embassy to start proceedings of illegality in paying an Indian citizen under contract in New York. This security Officer is the chief instigator in kidnapping the two Indian nationals.

Hence Nancy Powell in India was a bad dream. When India retaliated, it did target sanctions against her. Now there is talk that this woman must go as soon as NaMo comes to power. It is well known that it was her who played major role in withholding VISA for NaMo.

3. Chief of US Diplomatic Security (his name slips my memory) was an anti Indian together with his wife and came to India not as diplomat but as an anti Indian policeman. He is the person together with his wife began consultation with Nancy Powell and Chiefl of US Diplomatic Security in Washington to initiate a now notorious Maid under payment case. Without Nancy Powell's encouragement, this officer could not have moved an inch. Finally all three conspired to build a water tight case against the Indian diplomat, which turned out to be flimsy and the court threw it out.

This Security officer is the one who used his diplomatic privileges to buy the air tickets and not pay taxes. In fact, he misused his diplomatic position.

He was expelled from India.

India-US relations would stay in a cold storage for next two years. To appease India, they would replace Nancy Powell, but the damage is done. The mistrust would stay. The new prime minister may not be as kind as ManMohan Singh has been with the US staff in Delhi. He may order the arrest of a diplomat as tit for tat. US would holler a lot but of no avail. India /US diplomatic ties are in cold storage. Now India has built an iron tight case against US diplomats on tax evasion. It will be watershed case to try in absentia the smiling US diplomats in India, just as US would do to Indian diplomats.

There are ways to stop all this madness;

A. Replace Nancy Powell now instead of June.

B. withdraw the case in New York and apologize to the diplomat.

C. Restart the INDO-US dialogue with greater vigor.

D. Do not exclude India out Afghanistan as Pakistan want.

 

 

Published in India Defence Forum: - March 13, 2014

 

Preet Bharara and Indian diplomat in US

 

Maid and her husband and other member of Maid's family who were spirited out of India by M/s Preet Bharara and US STATE Department officials, should be immediately sent back to India. There was no case to allow spiriting out the family. It was case cooked by the two aforementioned personnel and has been thrown out by courts.

For spiriting out India Citizens, Preet Bharara and US Diplomatic security person, who was expelled by India are to be arrested, strip searched and then jailed pending trial.

My good advice to US, get over this case sooner than later. The new government about to take over in May this year is unlikely to yield any grounds on this subject. Then already ruined US popularity due to bank rolling the Ukraine right wing coup, would receive a further shock. US now needs friends, if India does not follow the suite of condemning Crimean referendum in next few days, a lot more countries will also opt out. Then US would not be able to push a UN resolution condemning Russia and Crimean Parliament.

 

 

Dec 17, 2013

 

Preet bearers knows how to make enemies of two friends.

He had no idea that Indian reaction would be so vehement.

In my opinion this was not Preet alone. State Department was fully involved in this arrest and detention.

What he did not know that Supreme Court in India has struck down the new rules of Gay Rights only a day or two earlier.

Now a number of US diplomats in India could be arrested for un-natural acts against the Indian laws.

What a situation Preet and his State Department advice has got him into. Now he does not know, how to get out of it.

There is no face saving formula. Americans cannot find reasons to withdraw the case. In the process a bunch of American would be arrested and strip searched and nothing Preet Bharera can do about it.

This is not the end to it. India has already asked pay and wages paid to Indian labour working in the American embassy. As it is investigated, Indian investigators will find that US embassy employers were under paying their employees. They are not being paid American wages. Charges like US charges on Indian diplomat in New York will be leveled on most of US embassy staff.

Go ahead Mr. Bharera; come and defend them in New Delhi.

As I said above there are some people in US who think that only US laws should be applied everywhere. Now they have a dilemma.

This is not only case where New York has been nasty of India.

Five years back Mayor Bloomberg in his enthusiasm sent a legal notice to collect additional property taxes from the Indian Consulate as it was being used as a day-to-day residence by visiting Indian diplomats. That spat was not solved easily. The Consulate in New York is an Indian soil. Same rules apply to American embassy and Consulate in New Delhi. Visiting American diplomats of the CIA kind do not go out and stay in hotels, they stay at the embassy/consulate and stay in communication with their nefarious friends outside with the most secret equipment in the embassy and the consulate. When Mayor Bloomberg was apprised of this situation, he beat a hasty retreat.

What happened next is not in public domain. US State Department wanted this situation to go away, hence worked hard to make the situation go away very privately.

I am sure the current diplomatic spat will be hushed up sooner than later. US does not wish their diplomats arrested breaking Indian laws, hence would work hard for this situation to go away. A junior State Department official would offer apology to India and the Indian diplomat affected. Bharera would go in hiding. His record of prosecuting, especially targeting Indians in New York who are engaged in their profession of making money would be re- examined.

There is no way out for Preet Bharara.