Spread of Coronavirus in Indian masses was a forgone Conclusion in March of this year

Coronavirus Spread in Indian Masses was a Foregone Conclusion in March of this year

 The spread of Coronavirus among the masses in India was a foregone conclusion at least from the model which a senior US doctor of Indian descent and others had used to forecast its spread. He had predicted millions in affected people and deaths in India. May God, a cat catches his tongue. Their prognosis was so upsetting for Indian citizens that a big percentage of people resigned to the coming fate. The doctor was basing his forecast on a model, using the spread of the 1918 Flu epidemic. He assumed that health care was next to nothing in India. They lacked testing kits and were most likely short on ventilators and other other survival kits in the hospitals, hence people will die.

Modi, the Indian PM set out right from day one, when the news of this health disaster broke, to prove them wrong. He took steps like - limit incoming people in India afflicted with the disease. Since it is an overseas disease, airports became the focus of action. He ordered - testing and separating afflicted people from the rest. Additional steps taken included closing the airports for international flights for a week, track every individual arrived, afflicted or not, isolate passengers for 14 days in local hospital special wards. Anybody who escaped airport detection was tracked and brought back for isolation. A record of how many people the person met when he was away was kept handy. If the person developed symptoms, all the people he met or shook hands were tested or ordered into isolation. One notorious case of a singer who walked away from the airport undetected, later tested positive and still later all the people she met were tested for the virus. The singer had 4 FIRs registered against her for flouting the instructions. A lesson was learnt by her as well as the general public. Tracking helped testing suspects. General public not likely to be exposed was left alone. The Italian method of testing the whole area was not used. That would require a huge effort and money. 

Additional measures which Modi undertook included lockdown to prevent person to person contact and spread. One day lockdown as a test case was successful and later he ordered a three weeks lockdown and stay home mandated by an order to stop further spread. Anybody with symptom was moved to the hospital where additional testing and ventilators (plus drugs) would provide relief. PM, Modi prohibited untested drug therapy to complicate the situation. This method is In use now. It is too short a time to comment on Its success.

Today is the first day of stricter lockdown like the way the Chinese had done it in Wuhan on a small scale. This is a massive lockdown of 130 million people for three weeks. Strict monitoring of this lockdown is in progress. You have to stay at home. You can go out only to get essential supplies while maintaining a meter distance between each other. Right now the roads and streets are empty. Violators are on the hook for a jail term or a fine. This has scared the violators. In a massive country like India policing is harder, but the danger of disease is making everybody listen.

I live in Canada, I was here on a holiday trip but was surprised by the good arrangements in place here. I am returning soon and would carry good memories of these arrangements. 

I say it again that a cat should catch the tongue of evil sayers. The Western reporters If they are looking for a bad story, they should find it in England, Spain, Italy and Germany. Their in-spite of the best medical system, the disease is out of control.