New Chinese Brinkmanship in dealing with India

 Is this Chinese new brinkmanship or posturing in Ladakh?


If it is both the above, then the Chinese have lost the game. I hope it is not true. I choose to assume that Chinese with these minor intrusions on one or two hilltops in Ladakh is an effort to offer Pakistanis a breathing room after the Article 370 abolition and declared Indian intent to regain the a Pakistani Occupied territory. No Indian plans to capture POK have been made public. We are merely guessing that the Chinese are trying to defocus India from its declared intent. The Chinese quickly signed a dam building contract in POK (Basha Dam) and on a long range basis their intent is to protect the CPEC road. The former quick agreement for construction in disputed territory will allow Chinese to enter the war theatre to protect their own interests. Although the CPEC road is a waste of money with hundreds and hundreds of lorries daily crossing the 14,000 feet Khunjereb Pass with great difficulty, nevertheless, for China it is of good strategic value and for cash low Pakistan, any investment is good. Besides, it pulls Pakistan into a military standoff with India with Chinese nod.

If India keeps up its strong military posture in Ladakh and beats the hell of the Chinese if they come even close to Daulat Beg Oldi via Despang plains then all Chinese plans are thwarted. The current fight started by the Chinese on LAC is to frustrate the full construction of Darbuk-Shyokh-Daulat Beg Oldie (DSDBO) road. If the road does get fully operational then Chinese on their part wish to sit on hilltops to watch movements on the road. That is what India is preventing to happen and forcing Chinese out from hilltops.

Nearer to the strategic trijunction of Chinese occupied Akash chin plateau, POK and Indian Administered Kashmir, there is an area where Chinese and Pakistani forces could link up and administer a strategic defeat to India. That is what a major Indian armor and artillery buildup at Despang plains will prevent. With the Indian road completed and Indian airstrip fully operational near this area and also Leh becomes a fully operational air base, Chinese and Pakistanis link up, have no chance. Moreover, Indian troops from Arunachal Pradesh to Daulat Beg Oldi are so strongly positioned that the Chinese would dare with their overconfidence but run back quickly. Pakistanis have no infrastructure, first to come and then to tie up with Chinese and to occupy the area.

There is another issue at play. China is the key factor in this years US election results. The incumbent president’s foolish twitter posts have alienated quite a few. Whatever have not been alienated have become angry with the President for not being on the same page with local governors and city officials in handling the Covid response. Now people are angry for their predicament and easiest target is the President. That makes him harder to get reelected. Hence In this tough situation, US does not know with clarity as to how to respond to the Chinese pandemic challenge. Hence Chinese have spurned off US two carrier challenge in South China Sea. This directly does not impact Indian response, but two contesting candidates have not made their position clear onto either to blame Chinese for Covid spread and move out of China or business as usual. If blame is laid squarely on the Chinese, then a US / China confrontation is very clear.

Hence trying guess work on the Chinese intent of this flare up in Ladakh, I think it is simply a posturing to help out Pakistan from its current difficult situation both military and economic. The Pakistani Military and its subservient civilian government are watching India - China fight with great interest. Temporarily it has thwarted Modi plans to grab POK this year in the winter. It has also brought focus on expansionist China. The rapid spread of Wuhan virus has put brakes on Chinese expansionist plans. Thither is a bigger danger to China, because disapproving world blames China for the pandemic and has decided to cut Chinese imports. In some cases the West has decided to move factories out of China. The foregoing is bad for Chinese over confidence. Today there is a greater focus to contain this virus. Hence, understanding the precarious situation and also to reassure the little Asian allies, US dispatched two Aircraft carriers to South China Sea. Immediately Chinese focus shifted to South China Sea. Although they do not admit, yet their nervousness is apparent. Possible fight in Ladakh ended and talks began. That is India’s opportunity to extract from the Chinese the removal of any Chinese troops from the Ladakh heights. ........ If all efforts fail in next two months, then a shooting war is a foregone conclusion. That will be the best time to show China, the Indian wrist of steel and a will of iron.

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